Tax Foundation economist Erica York estimated that making a tariff-funded dividend available to all U.S. individuals earning $100,000 or less would cover about 150 million people and would cost roughly $300 billion.
September 30, 2025
high
statistical
Estimate of population coverage and gross cost for a proposed tariff-funded dividend limited by an income threshold.
Erica York estimated that each dollar of tariff revenue offsets about $0.24 of income and payroll tax revenue, and after accounting for that offset tariffs had produced about $90 billion in net revenue compared with a hypothetical $300 billion rebate.
September 30, 2025
high
statistical
Estimate of the broader budgetary impact of tariffs, including reduced tax receipts and resulting net revenue.
An estimate from the Tax Foundation indicates that one dollar of tariff revenue offsets about $0.24 of federal income and payroll tax revenue.
high
statistical
Estimate reflecting how tariff receipts interact with other federal revenue streams according to the Tax Foundation.