A 2025 Tax Foundation estimate by Erica York concluded that providing $2,000 rebates to households earning under $100,000 annually would produce at least a $100 billion shortfall compared with expected tariff revenues for the U.S. government.
November 11, 2025
high
temporal
Budgetary analysis comparing proposed per-household rebates to projected tariff revenue.
Tax Foundation economist Erica York estimated that making a tariff-funded dividend available to all U.S. individuals earning $100,000 or less would cover about 150 million people and would cost roughly $300 billion.
September 30, 2025
high
statistical
Estimate of population coverage and gross cost for a proposed tariff-funded dividend limited by an income threshold.
Erica York estimated that each dollar of tariff revenue offsets about $0.24 of income and payroll tax revenue, and after accounting for that offset tariffs had produced about $90 billion in net revenue compared with a hypothetical $300 billion rebate.
September 30, 2025
high
statistical
Estimate of the broader budgetary impact of tariffs, including reduced tax receipts and resulting net revenue.