Tax Foundation

A 2025 Tax Foundation estimate by Erica York concluded that providing $2,000 rebates to households earning under $100,000 annually would produce at least a $100 billion shortfall compared with expected tariff revenues for the U.S. government.

A 2025 Tax Foundation estimate indicated that limiting $2,000 rebates to households earning $75,000 or less annually would still exceed expected tariff revenues for the U.S. government.

Tax Foundation economist Erica York estimated that making a tariff-funded dividend available to all U.S. individuals earning $100,000 or less would cover about 150 million people and would cost roughly $300 billion.

Erica York estimated that each dollar of tariff revenue offsets about $0.24 of income and payroll tax revenue, and after accounting for that offset tariffs had produced about $90 billion in net revenue compared with a hypothetical $300 billion rebate.

An estimate from the Tax Foundation indicates that one dollar of tariff revenue offsets about $0.24 of federal income and payroll tax revenue.

The Tax Foundation estimated that all U.S. tariffs would raise about $2.4 trillion in federal revenue over the following decade.

The Tax Foundation estimated that tariffs would reduce U.S. economic output by about 0.6 percent, result in more than 600,000 fewer full-time jobs, and impose an average annual burden on U.S. households of approximately $1,200 to $1,600.