Congressional Budget Office

The Congressional Budget Office estimated that about 4 million people would likely drop their health coverage if enhanced premium tax credits expired and premiums increased.

The Congressional Budget Office in 2025 estimated that tariffs implemented between January 6 and November 15, 2025, if left in place through 2035, would reduce U.S. primary budget deficits by $2.5 trillion.

In 2025, the Congressional Budget Office estimated that a six-week federal government shutdown would reduce U.S. GDP growth in the fourth quarter of 2025 by about 1.5 percentage points.

The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) studies and produces analyses of the financial impact of legislation introduced in both the U.S. Senate and the U.S. House of Representatives.

In 2025 the Congressional Budget Office projected that tariffs would collect approximately $3 trillion from businesses over the following decade.

The combined nuclear modernization and sustainment plans for 2025–2034 of the U.S. Department of Defense and the U.S. Department of Energy total $946 billion, according to the Congressional Budget Office.

As of 2025, the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office (CBO) assessed that the Trump administration's tariff policy was expected to increase unemployment rates and inflation and lower overall economic growth in 2025.

The Congressional Budget Office in 2025 said the administration could use mandatory funding provided in the 2025 reconciliation act or other sources of mandatory funding to continue activities financed by direct appropriations at federal agencies, and that some Department of Defense funds could be used to pay active-duty personnel during a shutdown, thereby reducing the number of excepted workers who would receive delayed compensation; the CBO cited the Department of Defense, the Department of the Treasury, the Department of Homeland Security, and the Office of Management and Budget as agencies that received specific funds under the law.

A 2025 KFF analysis of Congressional Budget Office estimates found that policy changes related to immigrants with legal status would increase federal spending by $131 billion.

A 2025 Congressional Budget Office estimate found that as many as four million people could become uninsured if premium tax credits for Affordable Care Act marketplaces are not renewed.

The Congressional Budget Office estimated in 2025 that under a lapse in discretionary funding for fiscal year 2026 about 750,000 federal employees could be furloughed each day.

A 2025 Congressional Budget Office projection estimated that without Affordable Care Act premium tax credits, 3.8 million Americans would be unable to afford health insurance by 2035, including about 2.0 million Americans by 2026.

The Congressional Budget Office estimated that roughly 750,000 nonessential federal employees could be furloughed and that estimated back pay for those furloughed employees could cost up to $400 million per day.