The Congressional Budget Office in 2025 estimated that tariffs implemented between January 6 and November 15, 2025, if left in place through 2035, would reduce U.S. primary budget deficits by $2.5 trillion.
November 18, 2025
high
statistical
Projection of tariff-driven primary deficit reductions through 2035 from a 2025 CBO estimate.
The Penn Wharton Budget Model estimated that all U.S. tariffs brought in approximately $225 billion in revenue in 2025, with roughly $140 billion of that attributed to emergency tariff orders.
January 01, 2025
high
statistical
Estimate of tariff revenue in 2025 from a fiscal-policy model.
The Committee for a Responsible Budget estimated in 2025 that $2,000-per-person tariff stimulus checks would cost about $600 billion, an amount the Committee described as roughly twice the annual tariff revenue estimated by the Penn Wharton Budget Model for 2025.
January 01, 2025
high
statistical
Cost estimate for proposed tariff-funded stimulus checks relative to estimated tariff revenue.