U.S. Federal Budget and Debt

The Congressional Budget Office projects federal deficits and debt will worsen over the next decade, pushing debt to roughly 120% of GDP as rising Social Security, Medicare and interest costs are made larger once the administration’s One Big Beautiful Bill, higher tariffs and mass‑deportation policies are factored in — raising the 2026 deficit by about $100 billion and adding roughly $1.4 trillion to deficits over 2026–2035. The CBO also finds tariffs would raise about $3 trillion in revenue but boost inflation between 2026–29 (with inflation expected to stay above the Fed’s 2% target until 2030), prompting policy groups to urge Congress to combine revenue increases and spending restraint as voters and markets watch the debt trajectory.