Tariffs and Trade

President Trump on Monday unveiled a $12 billion one‑time farm aid package — funded through the USDA’s Commodity Credit Corporation — that administration officials say directs roughly $11 billion through a new Farmer Bridge Assistance Program for row‑crop producers and about $1 billion for farmers whose crops do not qualify, announced at a White House roundtable with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins. The White House says payments should reach farmers’ bank accounts in late February, but farm groups and Black farmers warn the timing and size are insufficient to avert immediate loan and cash‑flow crises tied to tariff disruptions, even as the administration cites tariff revenue and recent China purchase pledges as enabling the relief.

The U.S. Department of Commerce has announced anti-dumping tariffs of 92% on pasta from 13 major Italian producers, potentially taking effect as early as January 2026, on top of an existing 15% tariff on EU goods. Italian grocers and restaurants in the U.S., such as Washington-area shop Vace, are stockpiling and warn prices could spike, while an academic researcher disputes the dumping allegations in public data.

Treasury and budget data show tariff revenue is far too small to substitute for federal income taxes — FY2025 tariffs are about $195 billion versus roughly $2.7 trillion in annual individual income taxes, and the Tax Foundation estimates current tariff policy would raise about $2.1 trillion over 10 years versus roughly $32 trillion in individual income taxes, calling full replacement "mechanically impossible." Analysts also note a $2,000 "tariff dividend" would cost $300–$600 billion (more than current tariff receipts), a tariff-funded tax cut would mainly benefit high earners, and any such shift would require Congress to rewrite the tax code and faces pending legal challenges.