2026 Midterm Elections

Speaking at a Jan. 27 event in Clive, Iowa, Trump kicked off a series of planned midterm stops touting a "booming" economy — saying inflation has been defeated, growth is "exploding" and real wages are up — as the White House frames the tour as an affordability push. That message was undercut by independent data and local indicators (Moody’s/Mark Zandi flagging Iowa at recession risk; Philadelphia Fed ranking Iowa last for growth; November unemployment rising to 3.5%), KFF projections that about 80,000 Iowans could lose coverage and premiums could roughly double for another 117,000, protesters interrupting the event, and the political fallout from the Minneapolis federal‑agent killings and scrutiny of DHS leadership, while Democrats pushed back and Trump repeated an unsubstantiated $18 trillion investment claim.

An unprecedented early wave of House retirements has grown to more than 10% of seats as Rep. Vern Buchanan announced he will not seek reelection in 2026, becoming the 28th House Republican to step down. The 20-year Florida incumbent — vice chair of the House Ways and Means Committee and chair of its Health Subcommittee — is expected to help shape a second GOP reconciliation package before leaving; Cook Political Report rates his southwest Florida seat as solidly Republican, so his exit is unlikely to flip the district but removes an experienced GOP tax writer as Republicans fight to hold a razor-thin majority.

The House passed the "AI for Main Street" bill. Meanwhile the RNC approved a rules change allowing Chair Joe Gruters to convene a midterm-year convention — promoted by Trump as a "Trump‑a‑palooza" to highlight his record, with dates and location to be announced and drawing criticism from DNC Chair Ken Martin.

The House GOP’s labor bill failed amid a razor-thin Republican majority, heightening fears that Democrats could seize control and dictate the agenda. An AP analysis shows 47 members — 21 Democrats and 26 Republicans, more than 10% of the chamber — have already announced they won’t run in 2026, the highest share at this point in a midterm cycle since at least 2013, driven by open Senate and governor bids, age‑related retirements, and mid‑decade redistricting.