UN Climate Outlook Says 75 Percent Chance World Tops 1.5°C By 2030
The World Meteorological Organization and the UK Met Office said on May 28, 2026 there is a 75% chance the 2026-2030 global temperature average will exceed 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels.[1]
The WMO also says there is a 91% chance at least one of the next five years will exceed 1.5°C and an 86% chance at least one year will break the 2024 global heat record.[1] The outlook projects every year through 2030 will be about 1.3-1.9°C warmer than the late 1800s baseline.[1]
The Paris Agreement treats 1.5°C as a key benchmark for limiting the worst impacts of climate change. 2024 was the hottest year on record, and the WMO says that new baseline helps explain why the odds of crossing 1.5°C are now so high.[1] The report also expects a strong El Niño that could persist through 2028 and likely make 2027 the hottest year on record.[1] It warns Arctic temperatures could rise roughly 3°F by 2030 and flags elevated drought and wildfire risk for the Amazon.[1]
The WMO frames these numbers as probabilistic forecasts, not certainties, but the agency says the high odds increase urgency for faster emissions cuts and adaptation planning worldwide.[1]
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📌 Key Facts
- On May 28, 2026, the World Meteorological Organization released new multi-year climate projections with the UK Met Office.
- The report says there is a 75% chance the 2026–2030 global temperature average will exceed 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels.
- It finds a 91% chance at least one of the next five years will exceed 1.5°C and an 86% chance at least one year will break the 2024 global heat record.
- WMO projects every year between now and 2030 will be 1.3–1.9°C warmer than the late 1800s baseline.
- The projections include an expected strong El Nino that could persist through 2028 and likely make 2027 the hottest year on record.
- Arctic temperatures are projected to rise about 3°F (1.66°C) by 2030, and the report flags high drought and wildfire risk in the Amazon.
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