Blockchain Analysis Flags Possible Insider Trading on Biden Pardons
A new analysis of blockchain activity has flagged what investigators and analysts say may be insider trading tied to President Biden's pardons: in early 2026 a single Polymarket account turned a roughly $300,000 profit on well-timed bets that paid off when pardons were announced, and chain-analysis by bubblemaps linked that account to other wallets in a pattern critics say is unlikely to be random. The activity took place on Polymarket, a high-volume crypto prediction market, and has attracted federal attention—Manhattan prosecutors are probing whether certain bets on prediction markets, including these, violated insider trading laws or relied on confidential White House information.
The episode is notable because it is an outlier in a market where large gains are rare: Polymarket reported about $26.2 billion in trading volume in Q1 2026, but only roughly 2% of traders have made more than $1,000 in profits and about 7-8% of its roughly 2.5 million wallet addresses were profitable as of April 2026. Regulators are moving: the CFTC issued an advance notice of proposed rulemaking in March 2026 to clarify oversight of prediction markets and to consider prohibitions on trading with material non-public information, and separate early-2026 cases have linked similar bets to government decisions and military actions.
The reporting marks a shift in how these markets are covered and perceived. Early coverage often emphasized the novelty and liquidity of crypto prediction platforms, but recent reporting—driven by NPR's coverage combined with public blockchain analyses and commentary from independent analysts and legal scholars on social media—has focused on the legal and ethical risks, the statistical improbability highlighted by a Columbia Law professor that such a winning streak could occur by chance, and calls from commentators for stronger enforcement and clearer rules. That evolution in reporting has helped push the story from a curiosity about a profitable trader to a subject of regulatory scrutiny and criminal inquiry.
đź“Š Relevant Data
Polymarket's total trading volume for Q1 2026 reached approximately $26.2 billion, marking a more than 90% increase from the previous quarter.
Polymarket Tops $10 billion Monthly Volume for First Time in 2026 — MEXC
Only about 2% of Polymarket traders have made over $1,000 in profits, with roughly 7-8% of the 2.5 million wallet addresses being profitable overall as of April 2026.
STATISTICS | Only 2% of Polymarket Traders Have Made ... — Binance
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) issued an advance notice of proposed rulemaking in March 2026 to clarify regulatory oversight of prediction markets, including prohibitions on trading with material non-public information.
CFTC Issues Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on ... — Blank Rome
Federal prosecutors in Manhattan are investigating whether bets on prediction markets, including those on Polymarket, have violated insider trading laws, with cases emerging in early 2026 related to government decisions and military actions.
Federal prosecutors are exploring whether prediction ... — CNN
đź“Ś Key Facts
- An unnamed Polymarket trader netted approximately $316,346 in profit from five Biden‑pardon bets, including a Hunter Biden pardon wager placed about a month before it was issued.
- The trader wagered about $64,000 in the final hours of Biden’s term that Joe Biden would issue pre‑emptive pardons to Jim Biden, Liz Cheney, Adam Schiff and Adam Kinzinger, all of which occurred despite none having been charged with crimes.
- Bubblemaps used AI‑driven transaction analysis to tie two winning Polymarket accounts to a shared deposit wallet at Kraken, and DOJ adviser Joshua Mitts said the pattern’s odds of being random are “virtually zero,” suggesting access to confidential information.
- Mitts’s broader research estimates roughly $143 million in profits on Polymarket have been earned by traders using insider information about government decisions.
- Kraken enforces know‑your‑customer rules but has not identified the trader publicly; Polymarket did not respond to NPR’s request for comment.
đź“° Source Timeline (1)
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