Crypto and Prediction Markets

A new analysis of blockchain activity has flagged what investigators and analysts say may be insider trading tied to President Biden's pardons: in early 2026 a single Polymarket account turned a roughly $300,000 profit on well-timed bets that paid off when pardons were announced, and chain-analysis by bubblemaps linked that account to other wallets in a pattern critics say is unlikely to be random. The activity took place on Polymarket, a high-volume crypto prediction market, and has attracted federal attention—Manhattan prosecutors are probing whether certain bets on prediction markets, including these, violated insider trading laws or relied on confidential White House information.