Colorado State Issues First 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook
Colorado State University’s hurricane research team released the first major forecast for the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season on Thursday, projecting slightly below-average activity with 13 named storms, six hurricanes and two major hurricanes between June 1 and Nov. 30. The team estimates overall activity at about 75% of the long‑term seasonal average and puts the chance of a major hurricane striking the U.S. coastline at 32%, stressing that even a "quieter" season can produce a destructive landfall. Researchers say the main factor behind the subdued outlook is a likely El Niño, with NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center giving a 62% chance it will develop between June and August and persist through the end of 2026, a pattern that typically suppresses Atlantic hurricane formation. At the same time, still‑uncertain Atlantic sea‑surface temperature trends are giving "mixed signals" that could shift future updates to the forecast once the season is underway. Forecasters and emergency managers are using the early outlook to push coastal residents, especially in Florida and along the Gulf and East Coasts, to begin preparations now rather than waiting for storms to form, warning that statistics about overall storm counts do not predict who will be hit.
📌 Key Facts
- Colorado State University’s team forecasts 13 named storms, 6 hurricanes and 2 major hurricanes in the 2026 Atlantic season.
- The outlook pegs 2026 activity at about 75% of the long‑term seasonal average and estimates a 32% chance of a major hurricane striking the U.S. coastline.
- NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center sees a 62% chance El Niño will develop between June and August 2026 and last through year’s end, a key driver of the below‑average forecast.
📊 Relevant Data
Black communities in the Southeast United States are about twice as likely as other communities to experience a hurricane, with more than half of Black people residing in Southern states vulnerable to severe tropical storms.
By 2050, homes owned by Black people in the Southeast United States are estimated to be nearly twice as likely to be damaged by hurricanes compared to homes in other communities.
Climate change has intensified the maximum wind speeds of approximately 80% of Atlantic Basin hurricanes from 2019 to 2023 by an average of 18 miles per hour.
Study: Ocean warming has intensified recent hurricanes — Climate Central
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