2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season

Colorado State University’s hurricane research team released the first major forecast for the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season on Thursday, projecting slightly below-average activity with 13 named storms, six hurricanes and two major hurricanes between June 1 and Nov. 30. The team estimates overall activity at about 75% of the long‑term seasonal average and puts the chance of a major hurricane striking the U.S. coastline at 32%, stressing that even a "quieter" season can produce a destructive landfall. Researchers say the main factor behind the subdued outlook is a likely El Niño, with NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center giving a 62% chance it will develop between June and August and persist through the end of 2026, a pattern that typically suppresses Atlantic hurricane formation. At the same time, still‑uncertain Atlantic sea‑surface temperature trends are giving "mixed signals" that could shift future updates to the forecast once the season is underway. Forecasters and emergency managers are using the early outlook to push coastal residents, especially in Florida and along the Gulf and East Coasts, to begin preparations now rather than waiting for storms to form, warning that statistics about overall storm counts do not predict who will be hit.