Republican Andrew Rice Wins Virginia House Special With Large Overperformance
Republican Andrew Rice won a special election Tuesday to fill Virginia House District 98, beating Democrat Cheryl Smith by about 25 points in a seat long held by Republicans but located in a state that has recently trended Democratic. Conservative analysts on social media note that Rice’s margin appears to outperform Republican Gov. Winsome Earle‑Sears’ 2025 showing in the district and exceed Donald Trump’s 2024 margin there by roughly 10 points, which they are touting as evidence of GOP momentum. The result comes just months after Democrat Abigail Spanberger took office as governor, and Republican officials and commentators are explicitly framing the blowout as voter backlash to what they call her "far‑left" or "progressive liberal" agenda and the Democratic legislature’s recent bills. Virginia elections analyst Sam Shirazi also points to Republican anger over an April referendum that would trigger a mid‑cycle congressional map redraw expected to heavily favor Democrats, arguing that discontent with redistricting and the new Democratic majority in Richmond likely helped energize GOP turnout. Republicans now say the performance shows the planned Democratic gerrymander could be riskier than expected, and some, including Del. Karen Hamilton, are openly calling for more funding to fight the referendum and "secure the midterms" for Trump.
📌 Key Facts
- Republican Andrew Rice won the Virginia House District 98 special election to replace deceased GOP Del. Barry Knight, defeating Democrat Cheryl Smith by roughly 25 points.
- Conservative commentators say Rice outperformed Winsome Earle‑Sears’ 2025 gubernatorial margin in the district and Donald Trump’s 2024 margin by about 10 points, implying a swing toward Republicans.
- Virginia analyst Sam Shirazi attributes GOP enthusiasm partly to anger over an upcoming April redistricting referendum that would favor Democrats and to dissatisfaction with bills passed since Democrats took full control of Richmond in January under Gov. Abigail Spanberger.
- Republican lawmakers and commentators are publicly casting the result as voter backlash against Spanberger’s agenda and as a sign that Democrats’ redistricting push could backfire.
📊 Relevant Data
Between 1965 and 2015, new immigrants, their children, and their grandchildren accounted for 55% of U.S. population growth, adding 72 million people, which has contributed to demographic shifts in states like Virginia, where the foreign-born population reached 13.2% by 2023.
Impact of immigration of U.S. population growth since 1965 — workingimmigrants.com
In Virginia, the age-adjusted firearm death rate per 100,000 population in 2022 was 25.3 for Black residents, compared to 10.2 for White residents, 6.9 for Hispanic residents, and 4.8 for Asian residents, with Black residents comprising about 19% of the state's population.
Deaths Due to Firearms and Death Rates per 100,000 Population by Race/Ethnicity — KFF
Virginia's population growth from 2020 to 2024 was driven primarily by net international migration, adding approximately 150,000 people, with the foreign-born share increasing to about 13% statewide and 28.2% in Northern Virginia.
Virginia Population Change: 2020 to 2024 — VPAP.org
The April 2026 Virginia redistricting referendum proposes amending the state constitution to allow the General Assembly to adopt new congressional districts mid-decade, potentially shifting up to four seats toward Democrats based on current demographics.
A voter's guide to the redistricting referendum in Virginia — The Washington Post
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