State Elections and Redistricting

Republican Andrew Rice won a special election Tuesday to fill Virginia House District 98, beating Democrat Cheryl Smith by about 25 points in a seat long held by Republicans but located in a state that has recently trended Democratic. Conservative analysts on social media note that Rice’s margin appears to outperform Republican Gov. Winsome Earle‑Sears’ 2025 showing in the district and exceed Donald Trump’s 2024 margin there by roughly 10 points, which they are touting as evidence of GOP momentum. The result comes just months after Democrat Abigail Spanberger took office as governor, and Republican officials and commentators are explicitly framing the blowout as voter backlash to what they call her "far‑left" or "progressive liberal" agenda and the Democratic legislature’s recent bills. Virginia elections analyst Sam Shirazi also points to Republican anger over an April referendum that would trigger a mid‑cycle congressional map redraw expected to heavily favor Democrats, arguing that discontent with redistricting and the new Democratic majority in Richmond likely helped energize GOP turnout. Republicans now say the performance shows the planned Democratic gerrymander could be riskier than expected, and some, including Del. Karen Hamilton, are openly calling for more funding to fight the referendum and "secure the midterms" for Trump.