Iran War Energy Shock Raises U.S. Prices as Trump Considers Ending War Without Reopening Strait of Hormuz
The Iran war’s effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz has pushed Brent crude from roughly $70 to about $108.84 (more than a 40% jump), lifting U.S. gasoline to about $3.92 a gallon, increasing shipping fuel surcharges and prompting retailers and economists to warn of higher consumer prices and a near‑term bump to inflation. At the same time, polls show most Americans expect but largely oppose U.S. ground troops in Iran, and amid frustration with allies over reopening Hormuz President Trump is publicly weighing “winding down” the war without securing a reopened strait even as advisers warn more strikes could continue for weeks.
📌 Key Facts
- Brent crude has jumped from roughly $70 per barrel before the Feb. 28 U.S.–Israeli strikes on Iran to about $108.84 per barrel — a rise of more than 40% tied to the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
- Average U.S. gasoline prices reached about $3.92 per gallon (as of March 20), up roughly 29 cents in one week and nearly $1 since Feb. 20, according to AAA.
- Fuel surcharges and shipping costs have risen sharply — ShipMatrix reports fuel surcharges as a portion of shipping fees climbed 17% in three weeks — increasing costs for trans‑Pacific cargo and last‑mile delivery and prompting retailers to consider higher minimums for free shipping and price increases, especially at low‑margin discount chains.
- Major suppliers to grocery chains are adding fuel surcharges; some retailers (e.g., Stew Leonard’s) are temporarily resisting retail price hikes, signaling an emerging squeeze on retailer margins and potential pressure on employment.
- Economists at KPMG and Oxford Economics warn the energy shock will sharply lift headline inflation in March and April and keep inflationary pressure elevated as higher transport and food costs filter through the economy.
- A Reuters/Ipsos national poll (March 17–19) found nearly two‑thirds of Americans expect President Trump will send U.S. ground troops into Iran; 55% oppose sending ground troops, with just 7% backing a large‑scale ground operation and 34% supporting a limited special‑forces incursion. Overall, 37% approve of the fighting while 59% disapprove, with a sharp partisan split (77% of Republicans support vs. 6% of Democrats and 28% of independents).
- Senior officials have been ambiguous about a ground‑force option: Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth declined to rule it out, and Mr. Trump said on March 19 he is “not putting troops anywhere” but added that if he were, he would not disclose it.
- President Trump is publicly weighing “winding down” the Iran war without reopening the Strait of Hormuz, saying other nations should police the strait; U.S. officials caution this does not mean the war is ending imminently and predict at least “a couple of weeks” more of intensive strikes. Advisers say Trump is caught between political/economic pressure from high oil prices and his appetite for military action, and he has struggled to secure allied commitments of warships and minesweepers to reopen Hormuz, prompting public criticisms of NATO and allied countries.
📊 Relevant Data
The Strait of Hormuz accounts for about 20% of global petroleum liquids consumption, with oil flow averaging 20 million barrels per day in 2024.
Amid regional conflict, the Strait of Hormuz remains critical oil chokepoint — U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)
Utility service customers in predominately non-white communities pay higher energy prices but consume less energy compared to those in white communities, exacerbating energy insecurity.
Race, rates, and energy insecurity: exploring racial disparities in electricity costs and consumption in U.S. utility service areas — PMC (PubMed Central)
Oil price uncertainty increases unemployment rates, with the effect on Black and Hispanic unemployment rates about twice as large as on the total rate.
Racial and ethnic disparities in unemployment and oil price uncertainty: New evidence from a Granger-causality test in quantiles — ScienceDirect (Energy Economics)
Support for U.S. military action against Iran varies sharply by political affiliation, with 84% of Republicans supporting it compared to 7% of Democrats and 39% of independents.
U.S. Military Action Against Iran: Over Half Of Voters Oppose It, 74% Want Congress To Have A Say — Quinnipiac University Poll
The U.S. has limited direct dependency on oil through the Strait of Hormuz, as only a small percentage of U.S. oil imports pass through it, but global market disruptions still drive up domestic prices.
📰 Source Timeline (5)
Follow how coverage of this story developed over time
- Trump is now publicly mulling 'winding down' the Iran war without solving the Strait of Hormuz closure, explicitly saying on Truth Social that other nations should police the strait because 'The United States does not' need to.
- A U.S. official tells Axios this does not mean the war is ending imminently and predicts at least 'a couple of weeks' more of intensive strikes.
- Advisers describe Trump as trapped between political and economic pressure from high oil prices and his enthusiasm for wielding U.S. military power against Iran.
- The article notes Trump’s continued failure to secure allied commitments of warships and minesweepers for a coalition to reopen Hormuz, despite a U.K.‑brokered political statement of support.
- Trump’s frustration with allies has led him to call NATO countries 'cowards' and NATO a 'paper tiger' in connection with the Hormuz crisis.
- Brent crude has risen from roughly $70 per barrel before the Feb. 28 U.S.–Israeli strikes on Iran to $108.84, a more than 40% jump tied to the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
- Average U.S. gasoline prices reached $3.92 per gallon on March 20, up 29 cents in a week and nearly $1 from February 20, according to AAA.
- ShipMatrix data show fuel surcharges as a portion of shipping fees have climbed 17% in three weeks, and logistics experts expect retailers to respond by raising minimum purchase thresholds for free shipping and potentially raising prices, especially at low-margin discount chains.
- A major grocery operator, Stew Leonard’s, reports suppliers are already adding fuel surcharges but says it is temporarily resisting retail price hikes, highlighting an emerging squeeze on margins and possibly employment.
- Economists from KPMG and Oxford Economics warn the energy shock will sharply lift headline inflation in March and April and keep overall inflation pressure elevated as higher transport and food costs filter through.
- Reuters/Ipsos national poll conducted March 17–19 finds nearly two‑thirds of Americans believe President Trump will send U.S. ground troops into the war with Iran.
- The same poll shows 55% of Americans oppose sending ground troops, with only 7% supporting a large‑scale ground operation and 34% backing a limited special‑forces incursion.
- Overall, 37% of Americans approve of the fighting with Iran while 59% disapprove, with a sharp partisan split: 77% of Republicans support the operation versus 6% of Democrats and 28% of independents.
- Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth has publicly declined to rule out ground forces, while Trump said on March 19, 2026 that he is "not putting troops anywhere" but added that if he were, he would not say so.
- CBS pegs the oil-price increase at more than 40% since the Iran war effectively shut down the Strait of Hormuz.
- The piece explicitly connects higher oil prices to increased costs for both trans-Pacific cargo shipping and last‑mile delivery vans serving U.S. households.
- It highlights that these higher transport costs are expected to "quickly trickle down" to retailers and consumers, affecting both in‑store and online shopping prices.