U.S. Energy Prices and Inflation

Iran’s effective shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz — backed by mines, drone and missile strikes on tankers and Gulf energy plants (including damage that halted Qatar’s Ras Laffan LNG) — has removed roughly 15–20 million barrels a day of oil and refined flows, sending Brent and WTI above $100 at times, U.S. gasoline toward about $3.6–$3.7 a gallon and triggering sharp global equity selloffs. In response, the IEA/G7 announced an unprecedented 400‑million‑barrel coordinated release (the U.S. contributing 172 million barrels) and governments are weighing naval escorts, war‑risk insurance and sanctions waivers even as Asian nations impose fuel rationing and economists warn of persistent inflation, slower growth and acute emerging‑market stress if Hormuz stays closed for weeks or months.

U.S. diesel has topped $5 a gallon for the first time since December 2022, with AAA putting the national average at about $5.04 — the highest in four years and a roughly 38% one‑month increase versus about a 30% rise in regular gasoline. Analysts warn that rising diesel, which drives transport costs for heavy, low‑value goods, is likely to feed into core inflation and complicate the Federal Reserve’s ability to “look through” the energy shock.