Russia Says It Will Observe New START Warhead Limits If U.S. Does After Treaty Expiration
Russia says it will continue to observe New START's numerical limits on deployed strategic warheads only so long as the United States does, Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov told lawmakers, with the Kremlin framing the pledge as a conditional moratorium even as formal inspections and some data exchanges have been suspended since 2023. The statement followed Abu Dhabi talks where U.S. and Russian officials discussed a possible informal six‑month mutual observance and comes amid U.S. moves to press for a broader deal — including President Trump’s calls to replace New START and directives on nuclear testing — even as both sides have restored high‑level military communications.
đź“Ś Key Facts
- Russian officials, including Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov and Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov, say Moscow will continue to observe New START’s deployed warhead limits only so long as the United States does, framing this as a conditional moratorium announced by President Putin.
- Moscow has halted on‑site inspections and data exchanges under New START since 2023 but says it is still observing the numerical limits; independent estimates put combined U.S. and Russian inventories at roughly 4,000 total warheads and about 1,700 deployed, with China projected to reach roughly 1,000 warheads by 2030.
- President Trump and senior U.S. officials publicly criticized New START as a 'badly negotiated' and 'grossly violated' deal and have pushed for a new, modernized treaty rather than an extension; Under Secretary of State Thomas DiNanno argued a legal extension would not have been beneficial and said a bilateral treaty with only one other nuclear power is inappropriate going forward.
- U.S. negotiators have pushed to include China in any future arms‑control framework while Russia has countered that Britain and France should also be covered; Lavrov said Russia would 'work actively on a new agreement' if the U.S. confirms intentions to maintain cooperation, while Dmitry Medvedev warned U.S. criticism could make a treaty under previous terms impossible.
- The United States and Russia agreed to restore high‑level military communications that had been suspended since late 2021, but no formal new arms‑control treaty talks have begun; reports from Abu Dhabi said negotiators discussed a possible informal six‑month mutual observance of New START limits, though Moscow expressed skepticism about informal arrangements.
- President Trump has directed the Pentagon to resume nuclear‑weapons testing 'on an equal basis,' potentially ending the long U.S. test moratorium, and Russian leaders have asked for proposals on possible Russian test resumption within the framework of the Comprehensive Nuclear‑Test‑Ban Treaty discussions.
- Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov stressed that any extension of limits could only be 'formal' and that informal understandings are difficult to envision, while reiterating that Russia intends to take a 'responsible' approach to nuclear stability even as it prioritizes national interests.
đź“° Source Timeline (5)
Follow how coverage of this story developed over time
February 11, 2026
9:13 PM
Russia says it will stick to New START's nuclear arms limits as long as the U.S. does
New information:
- Specifies that Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov told the State Duma that Moscow will keep observing New START limits as long as it sees the U.S. doing the same, explicitly tying the moratorium to observed U.S. compliance.
- Clarifies that Russia believes the U.S. is 'in no hurry' to exceed New START caps and expects those limits to hold for the foreseeable future.
- Adds Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov’s comment that any extension of limits could only be 'formal' and that informal understandings are hard to imagine, even as he confirms both sides discussed responsible post‑treaty behavior and future talks during Abu Dhabi meetings.
- Notes Axios reporting that U.S. and Russian negotiators in Abu Dhabi discussed a possible informal six‑month deal to keep within New START limits, and records Moscow’s public skepticism about any informal arrangement.
6:29 PM
Russia agrees to abide by expired New START nuclear arms limits — as long as the US does the same
New information:
- Confirms that Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov has told lawmakers Moscow intends to act in a 'responsible and balanced' way and believes the U.S. is in no hurry to abandon New START limits, implying both sides are likely to stay within the caps for now.
- Quotes Lavrov saying that if U.S. intentions to maintain some cooperation are confirmed, Russia will 'work actively on a new agreement' and consider issues left outside previous strategic‑stability talks.
- Adds Trump’s full Truth Social framing that New START was a 'badly negotiated deal' he claims is being 'grossly violated,' and that instead of extension the U.S. should pursue a 'new, improved, and modernized Treaty that can last long into the future.'
- Reiterates technical details of New START’s force limits and notes the Associated Press and Axios reporting on a possible six‑month mutual observance window as context.
5:23 PM
Russia says again it will abide by lapsed weapons treaty - if U.S. does
New information:
- Sergey Lavrov told Russia’s lower house that Moscow will continue to observe New START’s deployed warhead limits so long as the U.S. does not exceed them, framing this as a moratorium announced by Putin that remains in effect conditionally.
- Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov reiterated that Russia will maintain a 'responsible' approach to nuclear stability while prioritizing national interests.
- The article notes that the U.S. and Russia agreed last week to restore high‑level military communications that had been suspended since late 2021, even as no new arms‑control talks have begun.
- It reports that President Trump has directed the Pentagon to resume nuclear weapons testing 'on an equal basis' with other countries, potentially ending a U.S. test moratorium dating back to the end of the Cold War, and that Putin in turn asked for proposals on possible Russian test resumption under the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty framework.
February 06, 2026
6:46 PM
No limits, no inspections: US and Russia face post–New START era as Trump pushes new nuclear deal
New information:
- Trump publicly labeled New START a 'bad deal' that was being 'grossly violated' and called for a 'new, improved and modernized treaty' rather than any extension.
- Under Secretary of State Thomas DiNanno told the Conference on Disarmament that 'even if we could have legally extended the treaty, it would not have been beneficial' and argued 'a bilateral treaty with only one nuclear power is simply inappropriate in 2026 and going forward.'
- The article details the U.S. push to include China in any future framework and Russia’s immediate counter‑demand that Britain and France also be covered, with Dmitry Medvedev saying U.S. criticism of New START means 'there’ll never be a treaty under these terms.'
- It reiterates that Russia had already halted inspections and data exchanges under New START since 2023 while claiming to observe numerical limits, and cites expert estimates of current warhead counts (U.S. and Russia ~4,000 total, ~1,700 deployed; China projected to ~1,000 by 2030).
February 05, 2026
9:56 AM
Morning news brief