Analysis Projects New York, California to Lose 6 House Seats After 2030 Census

A new projection based on 2025 population estimates by Carnegie Mellon redistricting expert Jonathan Cervas, shared via the Redistricting Network, forecasts that New York and California will together lose six U.S. House seats after the 2030 census, while Texas and Florida would gain a combined eight. The analysis suggests New York’s delegation would shrink from 26 to 24 seats and California’s from 52 to 48, continuing decades‑long declines for both Democratic‑leaning states, while Texas would rise from 38 to 42 seats and Florida from 28 to 32 on the strength of strong population growth. Smaller blue states such as Illinois, Rhode Island and Oregon are also projected to lose seats, while red‑leaning states including Utah and Idaho may gain. Experts warn these shifts would also redistribute Electoral College votes, further complicating Democrats’ path to the presidency. The piece also notes concern from New York redistricting lawyer Jeff Wice that adding a citizenship question to the 2030 census, as some Republicans and President Trump have urged, could further depress counts in immigrant communities and accelerate seat losses for blue states.