Redistricting and Elections

After the Minneapolis killing of Alex Pretti by a Border Patrol agent, Senate Democrats have vowed not to advance a six‑bill appropriations package that includes Homeland Security funding unless statutory ICE and CBP reforms — proposals range from warrant and identification requirements to limits on interior enforcement, body cameras and stricter reporting — are written into the DHS bill. With the Jan. 30/Friday funding deadline days away, the impasse raises a real prospect of a partial government shutdown as Republicans push to keep DHS inside the minibus and Democrats dig in for binding changes.

A new projection based on 2025 population estimates by Carnegie Mellon redistricting expert Jonathan Cervas, shared via the Redistricting Network, forecasts that New York and California will together lose six U.S. House seats after the 2030 census, while Texas and Florida would gain a combined eight. The analysis suggests New York’s delegation would shrink from 26 to 24 seats and California’s from 52 to 48, continuing decades‑long declines for both Democratic‑leaning states, while Texas would rise from 38 to 42 seats and Florida from 28 to 32 on the strength of strong population growth. Smaller blue states such as Illinois, Rhode Island and Oregon are also projected to lose seats, while red‑leaning states including Utah and Idaho may gain. Experts warn these shifts would also redistribute Electoral College votes, further complicating Democrats’ path to the presidency. The piece also notes concern from New York redistricting lawyer Jeff Wice that adding a citizenship question to the 2030 census, as some Republicans and President Trump have urged, could further depress counts in immigrant communities and accelerate seat losses for blue states.

The U.S. Department of Justice has filed a Supreme Court brief siding with California Republicans and asking the court to block Proposition 50’s mid‑decade congressional map, arguing at least one district (CA‑13) was drawn on the basis of race to boost Latino voting power and that the map is therefore an unconstitutional racial gerrymander. The move follows a 2–1 federal panel ruling that upheld the voter‑approved Prop 50 map as a partisan (not racial) gerrymander—authorizing its use while litigation continues—and sets up an appeal to the Supreme Court as candidates prepare to file for 2026 races.

Abigail Spanberger was sworn in on Jan. 17, 2026, in Richmond as Virginia’s first female governor in a noon outdoor ceremony at the state Capitol administered by Senior Justice William Mims amid a cold drizzle; Ghazala F. Hashmi was sworn in as lieutenant governor — the first Muslim woman to hold statewide office in the U.S. — and Jay Jones took office as attorney general. In her inaugural address Spanberger sharply criticized the Trump administration for cuts to health care, imperiling rural hospitals, closing markets and driving up costs for groceries, medicine and housing, while urging Virginians to speak up and also to work together where possible.