CSIS Says Russia–Ukraine War Casualties Could Reach 2 Million by Spring 2026
CSIS warns that combined Russian and Ukrainian casualties could reach about 2 million by spring 2026, estimating roughly 1.2 million Russian casualties (including about 325,000 troop deaths) from February 2022–December 2025 and 500,000–600,000 Ukrainian casualties (including about 140,000 troop deaths). The report says Russian battlefield losses are roughly 2–2.5 times higher than Ukraine’s, Russian advances since January 2024 have averaged just 15–70 meters per day, and the high Russian casualty rate reflects failures in combined‑arms operations, poor training and tactics, corruption, low morale, Ukraine’s defense‑in‑depth and a deliberate Russian attrition strategy.
📌 Key Facts
- A CSIS report, as reported by Fox News (Jan 28, 2026), projects combined Russia–Ukraine war casualties could reach 2 million by spring 2026; combined losses are already as high as about 1.8 million as of the report.
- CSIS breakout estimates that Russia suffered roughly 1.2 million casualties (including about 325,000 troop deaths) between February 2022 and December 2025, while Ukraine suffered roughly 500,000–600,000 casualties (including about 140,000 troop deaths) in the same period.
- CSIS assesses Russian battlefield losses are roughly 2–2.5 times higher than Ukraine’s.
- Since taking the initiative in January 2024, CSIS says Russian forces have advanced only about 15–70 meters per day—slower than almost any major offensive campaign in the past century.
- CSIS attributes high Russian casualty rates to failures in combined‑arms warfare, poor training and tactics, corruption, low morale, and Ukraine’s defense‑in‑depth approach.
- The report also assesses that Russia has consciously accepted very high casualties as part of an attrition strategy.
📰 Source Timeline (2)
Follow how coverage of this story developed over time
January 28, 2026
4:41 PM
Combined war casualties for Russia and Ukraine could hit 2 million, new report warns
New information:
- Breakout estimate that Russia has suffered about 1.2 million casualties, including 325,000 troop deaths, between February 2022 and December 2025.
- CSIS estimate that Ukraine has suffered roughly 500,000–600,000 casualties, including about 140,000 troop deaths, bringing combined losses to as high as 1.8 million today and on track toward 2 million by spring 2026.
- CSIS characterization that Russian forces have advanced at only 15–70 meters per day since taking the initiative in January 2024—slower than almost any major offensive campaign in the past century—and that Russian battlefield losses are roughly 2–2.5 times higher than Ukraine’s.
- Attribution of Russian casualty rates to failures in combined‑arms warfare, poor training and tactics, corruption, low morale and Ukraine’s defense‑in‑depth strategy, plus the assessment that Russia has consciously accepted very high casualties as part of an attrition strategy.
January 27, 2026