U.S. National Security and Foreign Policy

CSIS warns that combined Russian and Ukrainian casualties could reach about 2 million by spring 2026, estimating roughly 1.2 million Russian casualties (including about 325,000 troop deaths) from February 2022–December 2025 and 500,000–600,000 Ukrainian casualties (including about 140,000 troop deaths). The report says Russian battlefield losses are roughly 2–2.5 times higher than Ukraine’s, Russian advances since January 2024 have averaged just 15–70 meters per day, and the high Russian casualty rate reflects failures in combined‑arms operations, poor training and tactics, corruption, low morale, Ukraine’s defense‑in‑depth and a deliberate Russian attrition strategy.