House GOP Labor Bill Fails as Slim Majority Fuels Fear of Democratic Agenda Control
The House GOP’s labor bill failed amid a razor-thin Republican majority, heightening fears that Democrats could seize control and dictate the agenda. An AP analysis shows 47 members — 21 Democrats and 26 Republicans, more than 10% of the chamber — have already announced they won’t run in 2026, the highest share at this point in a midterm cycle since at least 2013, driven by open Senate and governor bids, age‑related retirements, and mid‑decade redistricting.
📌 Key Facts
- AP analysis finds 47 sitting House members — 21 Democrats and 26 Republicans — have announced they will not seek reelection in 2026, representing more than 10% of the chamber.
- This is the highest percentage of House incumbents planning to leave at this point in a midterm cycle since at least 2013, per AP’s historical review.
- Fifteen representatives announced departure plans in the first half of 2025, compared with an average of nine in the first six months of a term over the last decade.
- AP identifies a surge of open or competitive Senate and governor races as a key driver, with incumbents jumping into those contests.
- AP says an older overall Congress is producing more age-driven retirements.
- AP also cites an unusual flurry of mid‑decade redistricting that has left some members opting out rather than running in dramatically redrawn districts.
📊 Relevant Data
The median age of US House members has increased from 52 in 1960 to 58 in recent years, primarily because incumbents are increasingly likely to win reelection, leading to longer tenures in office.
Analysis: Why are there so many more older lawmakers than young ones in Congress? — PBS NewsHour
In US midterm elections from 1934 to 2018, the president's party lost an average of 28 House seats, with high numbers of retirements in that party often preceding larger seat losses, as seen in 2018 when 37 Republican retirements contributed to Democrats gaining control.
The 2022 Midterm Elections: What the Historical Data Suggest — American Presidency Project, UC Santa Barbara
Texas added 319,569 residents through net international migration in 2024, contributing to population growth that has made Hispanics the largest demographic group in the state at about 40% of the population, driving mid-decade redistricting efforts.
Texas is now home to 31 million people even as population growth slows — The Texas Tribune
Frustration with congressional dysfunction, gridlock, and the brutal nature of midterm campaigns has been cited by multiple retiring lawmakers as a reason for not seeking reelection in 2026.
Retirements pile up as lawmakers see dysfunction and brutal midterm cycle — MyNBC15
📰 Source Timeline (2)
Follow how coverage of this story developed over time
- AP analysis finds 47 sitting House members — 21 Democrats and 26 Republicans — have already announced they will not seek reelection in 2026, more than 10% of the chamber.
- This is the highest percentage of House incumbents planning to leave at this point in a midterm cycle since at least 2013, per AP’s historical review.
- Fifteen representatives announced departure plans in the first half of 2025, compared with an average of nine in the first six months of a term over the last decade.
- AP identifies three main drivers: a surge of open or competitive Senate and governor races that incumbents are jumping into; an older overall Congress producing more age‑driven retirements; and members opting out rather than running in dramatically redrawn districts after an unusual flurry of mid‑decade redistricting.