Mexico seeks deal after Trump’s 5% tariff threat over Rio Grande water
President Trump again threatened a 5% tariff on Mexico via Truth Social unless Mexico immediately releases more Rio Grande water, saying he has “authorized documentation” to impose the duty — a reprise of an April confrontation when Mexico instead agreed to transfer reserves and boost flows and tariffs were not imposed. Mexico’s President Claudia Sheinbaum said her government will seek a solution that helps the U.S. without risking Mexican people or agriculture, noting immediate delivery of 200,000 acre-feet is constrained by pipe sizes and other physical limits and that the 1944 treaty allows deferred deliveries after the extraordinary 2023–24 drought; U.S. and Mexican officials, including USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins and acting foreign minister Roberto Velasco Álvarez, met Tuesday in the fifth meeting this year to try to resolve the dispute.
📌 Key Facts
- President Trump posted on Truth Social that he has “authorized documentation” to impose a 5% tariff on Mexico if Rio Grande water is not released immediately.
- In April the U.S. and Mexico reached an arrangement to boost Rio Grande flows using water from international reservoirs and six Mexican tributaries; after a similar April tariff threat Mexico transferred reserves and increased flows through October and no tariffs were imposed then.
- U.S. Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins welcomed Mexico’s cooperation under the April arrangement and participated in recent talks; U.S. and Mexican officials met Tuesday, including Rollins and Mexico’s acting foreign minister Roberto Velasco Álvarez—the fifth such meeting this year.
- Mexico cites the 1944 water treaty’s provision that allows deferred delivery in the next five‑year cycle following an extraordinary drought (which Mexico says occurred in 2023–2024); although 2025 rains enabled extra deliveries, Mexico remains behind on its obligations.
- President Claudia Sheinbaum said Mexico will seek a deal that helps the U.S. without risking Mexico’s population and agriculture, and she said immediate delivery of 200,000 acre‑feet is impossible because of pipe‑size and other physical constraints.
📊 Relevant Data
Between 2010 and 2020, Hispanic population growth accounted for 49.5% of Texas's total population increase of 3,999,944 people, while Hispanics represented about 39.3% of the state's population in 2020.
Texas Population: Trends and Characteristics — Texas Demographic Center
Hispanics of Mexican origin constitute approximately 80.2% of Texas's Hispanic population as of 2020-2022.
Hispanics and Latinos in Texas — Wikipedia
The population of the Rio Grande Regional Water Planning Area (Region M) increased from 1,721,610 in 2020 to a projected 1,893,334 in 2030, resulting in an increase in municipal water demand from approximately 272,000 acre-feet per year to 303,225 acre-feet per year.
2026 Rio Grande Regional Water Plan — Lower Rio Grande Valley Development Council
The population of Mexican sister cities along the Rio Grande increased from 3,130,113 in 2010 to 3,509,200 in 2020, an increase of 12.1%.
Binational Population Data in Sister Cities along the Rio Grande in Texas — Texas Commission on Environmental Quality
📰 Sources (3)
- President Claudia Sheinbaum said Mexico will seek a solution that helps the U.S. while not risking Mexico’s population and agriculture, but immediate delivery of 200,000 acre-feet is impossible due to pipe-size and other physical constraints.
- Mexico cites the 1944 treaty’s provision allowing deferred delivery in the next five‑year cycle after extraordinary drought (experienced in 2023–2024); despite 2025 rains enabling extra deliveries, Mexico remains behind.
- U.S. and Mexican officials met Tuesday afternoon; participants included U.S. Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins and Mexico’s acting foreign minister Roberto Velasco Álvarez—Mexico says it’s the fifth such meeting this year.
- Context update: In April, after a similar Trump tariff threat, Mexico transferred reserves and increased flows through October; tariffs were not imposed then.
- Direct quotes from Trump’s Truth Social post, including that he has “authorized documentation” to impose a 5% tariff if water is not released immediately.
- Context that in April the administration and Mexico reached a deal to boost Rio Grande flows, including water from international reservoirs and six Mexican tributaries.
- USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins is cited welcoming Mexico’s cooperation under the April arrangement.