U.S. Trade Policy

A growing legal battle over former President Trump’s IEEPA tariffs has prompted major brands and importers to file suits and spurred government filings quantifying the stakes: DOJ says roughly $130 billion was collected under the IEEPA tariffs across about 301,000 importers and 34 million entry filings, while other analyses put total tariff revenue as high as $259 billion and estimate up to $168 billion could be owed in refunds. Customs and Border Protection has been fast‑tracking liquidation to Treasury — shortening the normal 314‑day window — which has raised refund concerns even as DOJ says liquidation won’t affect refund availability, and the administration could seek similar tariff measures under Sections 232 or 301 if IEEPA tariffs are struck down.

President Trump again threatened a 5% tariff on Mexico via Truth Social unless Mexico immediately releases more Rio Grande water, saying he has “authorized documentation” to impose the duty — a reprise of an April confrontation when Mexico instead agreed to transfer reserves and boost flows and tariffs were not imposed. Mexico’s President Claudia Sheinbaum said her government will seek a solution that helps the U.S. without risking Mexican people or agriculture, noting immediate delivery of 200,000 acre-feet is constrained by pipe sizes and other physical limits and that the 1944 treaty allows deferred deliveries after the extraordinary 2023–24 drought; U.S. and Mexican officials, including USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins and acting foreign minister Roberto Velasco Álvarez, met Tuesday in the fifth meeting this year to try to resolve the dispute.