Nature retracts climate–economy paper; 2100 GDP-loss estimate slashed after data error
Nature has retracted a high-profile climate–economy paper after a data error was found that, when corrected (removing Uzbekistan), reduced the 2100 global GDP-loss estimate from about 62% to roughly 23%; the study had also circulated a widely cited mid-range projection of roughly $38 trillion per year in damages by 2049. Nature posted an editor’s note on Nov. 6 and issued a full retraction this week, and the authors say they intend to resubmit a revised version.
📌 Key Facts
- Nature has retracted a climate–economy paper after identifying faulty data.
- The paper projected about $38 trillion per year in economic damages by 2049 (mid-range estimate), a headline figure widely cited in media.
- Critiques cited by the New York Times found that removing Uzbekistan from the dataset reduced the paper’s estimate of global GDP loss in 2100 from roughly 62% to roughly 23%.
- Nature posted an editor’s note warning on Nov. 6 and issued a full retraction this Wednesday.
- The paper’s authors say they intend to resubmit a revised version.
📊 Relevant Data
The revised analysis shows that global economic output could be 17% lower by 2050 due to climate change, resulting in 32 trillion dollars in damages, with annual global climate damages in dollars about five times higher than abatement costs for limiting warming to 2°C.
Nature study on economic damages from climate change revised — Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
Climate change damages disproportionately affect poorer regions with low incomes and low historical emissions in percentage terms, leading to increased global inequality.
Nature study on economic damages from climate change revised — Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
The gap between economic outputs of the world’s richest and poorest countries is 25 percent larger than it would have been without global warming.
How Climate Change Worsens Inequality — Council on Foreign Relations
Developing countries, which comprise approximately 84% of the global population, suffer the greatest consequences from natural disasters, with the poorest countries experiencing almost 70 percent of deaths caused by climate-related disasters.
How Climate Change Worsens Inequality — Council on Foreign Relations
📰 Sources (2)
- Article highlights the headline figure that the paper projected ~$38 trillion per year in damages by 2049 (mid-range estimate), a key number widely cited in media.
- Notes that removing Uzbekistan from the dataset reduced the paper’s 2100 global GDP loss estimate from ~62% to roughly 23%, per critiques cited by the New York Times.
- Confirms Nature’s timeline: an editor’s note warning on Nov. 6 followed by a full retraction this Wednesday; authors intend to resubmit a revised version.