Black Friday retail +4.1% YoY; Adobe $11.8B online as foot-traffic estimates diverge
U.S. Black Friday retail sales (excluding autos) rose 4.1% year over year, driven by roughly 10% growth in online sales and modest in‑store gains, while Adobe Analytics reported a record $11.8 billion in U.S. online Black Friday spending (up 9.1% YoY), following $6.4 billion on Thanksgiving and with mobile accounting for over half of sales and peak online activity of about $12.5 million per minute. Foot‑traffic measures diverged — RetailNext said in‑store visits fell 3.6% YoY while Pass_by showed a 1.17% increase — and other trackers (Salesforce, Shopify) reported even larger online totals and continued strength in apparel, cosmetics and jewelry.
📌 Key Facts
- Mastercard SpendingPulse: U.S. retail sales (excluding autos) rose 4.1% year‑over‑year on Black Friday 2025.
- Breakdown (not inflation‑adjusted): online sales climbed ~10.4% YoY, while in‑store sales rose ~1.7% YoY.
- Adobe Analytics: U.S. consumers spent a record $11.8 billion online on Black Friday (up 9.1% YoY); Adobe also reported $6.4B in online Thanksgiving spending and said mobile drove over half of online sales.
- Peak online activity varied by tracker: Adobe recorded peak spending near $12.5 million per minute (10 a.m.–2 p.m. local time); Shopify said merchants processed a record $6.2B globally and peaked at about $5.1M per minute.
- Salesforce estimated roughly $18B in U.S. online Black Friday sales and $79B globally, noting average selling prices were up ~7%, items per order were down ~2%, and order volumes were down ~1%.
- Adobe forecasted the weekend e‑commerce run: about $5.5B (Saturday), $5.9B (Sunday) and a record $14.2B for Cyber Monday.
- In‑store foot‑traffic estimates diverged: RetailNext reported a 3.6% decline in U.S. Black Friday in‑store traffic from 2024, while Pass_by estimated in‑store visits rose ~1.17% YoY.
- Category strength: clothing and jewelry led gains, with cosmetics also cited among top online categories.
📊 Relevant Data
In September 2025, the unemployment rate was 3.8% for Whites, 7.5% for Blacks, and 5.5% for Hispanics.
The Employment Situation - September 2025 — U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
In 2023, the median household income was $112,800 for Asians, $89,050 for non-Hispanic Whites, $65,540 for Hispanics, and $56,490 for Blacks.
Income in the United States: 2023 — U.S. Census Bureau
In 2022, the percentage of 25- to 29-year-olds who had attained a bachelor’s or higher degree was 72% for Asians, 45% for Whites, 29% for Blacks, and 25% for Hispanics.
Educational Attainment of Young Adults — National Center for Education Statistics
In 2024, the average NAEP score (averaging 4th and 8th grade reading and math) was 269 for Asians, 256 for Whites, 233 for Hispanics, and 229 for Blacks.
NAEP Test Scores: Mississippi Miracle vs. Oregon Outage — Steve Sailer
In 2022, the average annual expenditures were $75,211 for White consumer units, $57,996 for Black or African American consumer units, and $87,950 for Asian consumer units.
Table 2100. Race of reference person: Average annual expenditures and characteristics — U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
📊 Analysis & Commentary (2)
"A short, promotional opinion post tying a 25% discount on the author's book to Black Friday, implicitly aligning with reporting that Black Friday/holiday retail demand remains strong despite tariff worries."
"Based on the title and context, the (garbled) piece appears to be an opinion/critique about Black Friday retail results, casting doubt on mainstream readings of strong holiday sales (matching the 'Black Friday starts strong despite tariffs' story); this match is tentative because the article text is unreadable."
📰 Sources (3)
- Mastercard SpendingPulse: U.S. retail sales excluding autos rose 4.1% year over year on Black Friday 2025.
- Breakdown: online sales +10.4% YoY; in-store sales +1.7% YoY (not inflation-adjusted).
- Pass_by estimates in-store visits rose 1.17% YoY, contrasting with other reports of a decline.
- Category strength highlighted in clothing and jewelry.
- Adobe Analytics: U.S. consumers spent a record $11.8B online on Black Friday, up 9.1% year over year.
- Adobe: $6.4B was spent online on Thanksgiving; mobile drove over half of sales.
- Peak online activity reached $12.5M per minute from 10 a.m.–2 p.m. local time Friday.
- RetailNext: U.S. in‑store Black Friday foot traffic fell 3.6% from 2024.
- Salesforce estimate: $18B U.S. online Black Friday sales and $79B globally; average selling prices up 7%, items per order down 2%, order volumes down 1%.
- Shopify: Merchants processed a record $6.2B globally, peaking at $5.1M per minute; top categories included cosmetics and clothing.
- Adobe forecast: weekend U.S. e‑commerce expected at $5.5B (Sat), $5.9B (Sun), and $14.2B on Cyber Monday (record).