Congressional Budget Office (CBO)

The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimated in 2025 that a six-week U.S. federal government shutdown would reduce U.S. real GDP growth in the 2025 fourth quarter by about 1.5 percentage points, would boost 2026 first-quarter growth by about 2.2 percentage points upon reopening, and would cause about $11 billion in permanently lost economic activity.

The 2018–2019 U.S. federal government shutdown lasted 35 days and reduced U.S. GDP by about 0.02%, according to the Congressional Budget Office (CBO).

A 2025 estimate by the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) projected that a four-week federal government shutdown would reduce U.S. real GDP growth in the fourth quarter of 2025 by about 1% and that an eight-week shutdown would reduce fourth-quarter 2025 growth by about 2%.

A 2025 Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimate of the economic effects of a federal funding lapse was based on assumptions that furloughed federal employees would be paid retroactively when the shutdown ends, that spending on goods and services forgone during the shutdown would be made up after funding resumes, that active-duty military and certain law enforcement personnel would continue to be paid during the shutdown, and that missed Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) benefits would be paid retroactively.