U.S.–Vietnam Relations

A newly revealed internal Vietnamese Defense Ministry paper titled "The 2nd U.S. Invasion Plan," completed in August 2024, shows Hanoi’s military quietly preparing contingencies for a potential American "war of aggression" even as the country publicly upgraded ties with Washington to a Comprehensive Strategic Partnership in 2023. Obtained and analyzed by The 88 Project, a Vietnam‑focused human‑rights group, the document characterizes the U.S. as a "belligerent" power that could use "unconventional" warfare, color revolutions, and manufactured pretexts to attack states that fall outside its orbit, including Vietnam. While the paper says the risk of war is currently low, it urges vigilance against U.S. efforts to "spread and impose" values on freedom, democracy, human rights, ethnicity and religion as a way to erode the ruling Communist Party’s hold on power. The analysis argues that this reflects a broad consensus across Vietnamese ministries, not a fringe view, and underscores that Hanoi still sees Washington as an existential threat and has no intention of joining a U.S.-led anti‑China alliance. The U.S. State Department declined to comment on the document itself but reiterated that the partnership with Vietnam "promotes prosperity and security" and that a strong, independent Hanoi benefits both countries and a "free and open" Indo‑Pacific.