U.S.–China Competition in Latin America

New Honduran President Nasry Asfura, elected with backing from President Donald Trump and sworn in this January, has ordered a review of his country’s agreements with China three years after Honduras broke ties with Taiwan and recognized Beijing. The move comes amid deep discontent from Honduran shrimp exporters, whose sales to Taiwan plunged from more than $100 million in 2022 to just $16 million in 2025 while hoped‑for access to the Chinese market never materialized. Regional analysts quoted in the piece say Honduras is now likely the country most poised to switch diplomatic recognition back to Taiwan, though more than a dozen agreements signed with China since 2023 complicate any reversal. Beijing and Taipei both struck cautious tones in response, while U.S. officials, including Secretary of State Marco Rubio on a recent trip to Guatemala, have been openly pushing Latin American governments to stick with or return to Taiwan as part of a broader Trump administration drive to limit Chinese influence in the Western Hemisphere. Asfura is expected to join other regional leaders at a Trump‑hosted security summit near Miami, underscoring that any Honduran shift would be closely coordinated with Washington’s strategic agenda.