U.S. Macroeconomy and Budget

The Congressional Budget Office now projects U.S. population will grow from about 349 million in 2026 to 364 million in 2056 — a gain of 15 million and roughly 2.2% smaller than last year’s estimate — and that population growth will cease in 2056 (and would begin shrinking as early as 2030 without immigration). The CBO attributes the reduced long‑term growth to President Trump’s hard‑line immigration policies (its modeling assumes roughly 320,000 removals over 10 years and notes recent legislation provides about $150 billion over four years for deportation and enforcement) and an aging population, saying the measures amount to a lasting “demographic shock” that, together with below‑replacement fertility, will intensify fiscal pressure on Social Security and Medicare.