U.S. Inflation and Energy Prices

U.S. consumer prices jumped in March as CPI rose 0.9% month‑over‑month and 3.3% year‑over‑year — the largest monthly gain in nearly four years — largely driven by a sharp gasoline spike tied to the Iran war, with gasoline accounting for roughly three‑quarters of the increase and average pump prices climbing by more than $1 to about $4.15 per gallon (up from $2.98 before the attacks). Core CPI was 2.6% year‑over‑year (about 0.2% m/m), but Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee warned that inflation progress has “stalled” amid business uncertainty — even as March payrolls rose by 178,000 — and economists note the current backdrop differs from the 2021–22 surge because labor market and consumer demand are weaker and there’s no new large stimulus.