U.S. House Control and 2026 Elections

Fox’s piece details how House Speaker Mike Johnson is managing a razor-thin 218–213 Republican majority after Marjorie Taylor Greene’s early resignation and Doug LaMalfa’s death, with four House seats now vacant and little short‑term help coming from special elections. Johnson says he has warned Republicans to avoid "adventure sports," "take your vitamins" and stay in Washington, while Majority Whip Tom Emmer’s office is telling members they expect them present "outside of life‑and‑death circumstances" to avoid surprise defeats on the floor. The article walks through the calendar of upcoming specials: a Jan. 31 race in safely Democratic TX‑18 that will almost certainly hand Democrats one more seat, and a Feb. 5 primary and April 16 special in New Jersey’s blue‑leaning NJ‑11, where Democrats are favored but GOP strategists see a sliver of opportunity given the district’s narrower 2024 presidential margin. With Democrats poised to gain at least one seat in the near term, every GOP absence or defection could decide votes on Trump’s agenda, impeachment pushes and shutdown brinkmanship, making member health, travel and discipline an unusually acute tactical concern. The story underscores how a historically thin House margin is turning routine scheduling and attendance into a constant power struggle, and why both parties are already gaming out how these specials could tip control before the 2026 midterms.