U.S. Economy and Labor Force

New provisional CDC data indicate U.S. births slipped to just over 3.6 million in 2025, about 24,000 fewer than in 2024, suggesting that the prior year’s slight uptick was a brief blip rather than the start of a sustained rebound. Robert Anderson of the CDC’s National Center for Health Statistics says the latest figures capture nearly all 2025 births, with only a few thousand more expected in the final tally. Demographer Karen Guzzo notes that even in 2024, when total births rose, the fertility rate still fell, and she expects both births and fertility to have declined again in 2025 given economic uncertainty and affordability concerns. The fertility rate has been below the 2.1‑children‑per‑woman replacement level for nearly two decades as Americans marry later and more women delay or forgo childbearing. The article also points out that Trump‑era steps to promote higher birth rates — such as an IVF access order and talk of 'baby bonuses' — have so far not altered the overarching downward trend.