U.S. Economy and Jobs

Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said Monday that whether the Fed cuts interest rates at its March meeting is now 'close to a coin flip,' after January’s stronger‑than‑expected 130,000 job gain suggested the labor market may be firming. Speaking to the National Association for Business Economics, Waller said he would want to see a similarly solid February jobs report before concluding downside risks to employment have eased enough to justify holding the benchmark rate at its current roughly 3.6% instead of cutting. He stressed that if January’s hiring strength is revised away or 'evaporates' in the next report, he would favor a rate cut in March, underlining how contingent the decision is on the next data release. Waller also said the Supreme Court’s recent decision striking down many of President Trump’s tariffs is likely to have only a limited and uncertain impact on growth and inflation, and therefore does not change his policy outlook, especially since the White House is already trying to re‑impose tariffs under different statutes. His comments mark a shift from January, when he dissented in favor of a cut, and they highlight the unusual disconnect he sees between relatively solid GDP growth and what he expects to be near‑zero or even negative job growth in 2025 once revisions are done, a dynamic he said he has 'never' seen in his lifetime and that could reflect a jump in productivity.