Tariffs and Tax Policy

Yale Budget Lab estimates paying $2,000 tariff "dividend" to Americans earning under $100,000 would cost about $450 billion and would boost U.S. GDP by roughly 0.3 percentage points in 2026 (with a ~0.15 pp employment uplift and only a trace rise in inflation). Treasury and outside estimates of tariff receipts vary (roughly $195–$260 billion collected in FY2025 with a faster pace into FY2026), and other analysts say the plan could leave large gaps or economic costs; the administration has floated alternatives (tax relief or targeted accounts), faces legal and legislative hurdles, and aims to begin payments around mid‑2026.