Space and Satellite Safety

NASA says its 1,300‑pound Van Allen Probe A spacecraft, launched in August 2012 to study Earth’s radiation belts, is expected to reenter the atmosphere around 7:45 p.m. Eastern today, with a 24‑hour uncertainty window based on U.S. Space Force tracking. The agency says most of the satellite will burn up on reentry, but some components are likely to survive to the surface; it pegs the risk of anyone on Earth being harmed at about 1 in 4,200, which it characterizes as low. The twin Van Allen probes spent nearly seven years operating in the harsh radiation environment, far longer than their planned two‑year mission, and generated data behind hundreds of scientific publications, including the discovery that a temporary third radiation belt can form during intense solar activity. Mission planners had originally expected the craft to fall back to Earth around 2034, but stronger‑than‑anticipated solar activity in the current cycle increased atmospheric drag and pulled it down more quickly. Probe B is expected to reenter sometime in the 2030s, as space‑debris and deorbit‑planning debates continue to gain attention among U.S. policymakers and space‑safety experts.