Prediction Markets and War with Iran

The White House sent staff an email warning them not to place bets on prediction markets, saying wagering on platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi — which had markets on strikes on Iran, oil prices and other policy‑contingent events — could amount to trading on material nonpublic information. Senior aides were alarmed by the scale and timing of war‑related betting and worried some employees might not recognize the criminal‑risk equivalence to securities or commodities insider trading, so the guidance used plainer language about legal exposure.