NOAA and U.S. Weather Forecasting

ABC reports that the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration has changed how it determines when the Pacific has flipped between El Niño and La Niña, responding to rapidly warming oceans that were making its old thresholds less useful. The shift will likely mean more periods are officially classified as La Niña and fewer as El Niño, a change that matters because those labels drive U.S. forecasts for hurricanes, drought, floods and seasonal temperatures. The article also highlights a new Nature Geoscience study led by Japanese researchers which finds that about three‑quarters of the jump in Earth’s energy imbalance in 2022 — and around 23% of the recent global temperature spike — can be traced to the transition from an unusually long three‑year 'triple‑dip' La Niña into El Niño on top of human‑driven warming. Study co‑author Yu Kosaka explains that prolonged La Niña trapped extra heat in the system by keeping warm water at depth, then the subsequent El Niño 'popped the lid off,' releasing that heat and boosting surface temperatures. The findings add weight to scientists’ view that the shocking warmth of 2023–25 is a combination of long‑term greenhouse‑gas warming and a rare configuration of the natural Pacific cycle, not a sudden unexplained break in the climate system.