Mortgage Rates and Real Estate Forecasts

A new Realtor.com analysis projects that in 2026 home prices will decline in 22 of the nation’s 100 largest housing markets, even as most metros see modest gains and the overall market shifts toward the most balanced conditions since the pandemic. The report, summarized by CBS, forecasts that 30‑year mortgage rates will average about 6.3% next year, down slightly from 6.6% in 2025, while wages continue to grow and existing‑home sales edge up roughly 2% to 4.13 million transactions. Florida is expected to bear the steepest corrections, with prices in Cape Coral and Fort Lauderdale projected to fall about 10.2% and in the North Port–Sarasota–Bradenton region by 8.9%, reflecting a comedown from COVID‑era buying frenzies and rising inventory. Zillow’s separate outlook similarly sees mortgage rates hovering just above 6% and existing‑home sales nearing 4.3 million, a 4.3% increase, underscoring a cautious consensus that conditions will ease but not fully solve the affordability crunch. Realtor.com’s model, which factors in inventory, new construction, local job and wage growth, and unemployment, anticipates prices rising in the other 78 large metros by a median of about 4%, implying that for most households, ownership will remain costly even if bidding wars cool.