Iran War and U.S. Intelligence

Axios reports that U.S. and Israeli intelligence agencies are actively trying to determine whether Iran’s newly declared supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, is actually exercising power during the current war. Mojtaba, announced as successor on March 9 after his father was killed in an Israeli strike, skipped the traditional televised Nowruz address and instead issued only a written message and photos via Telegram, deepening questions about his health, whereabouts and role in directing Iran’s military response. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth has publicly claimed Mojtaba was "wounded and likely disfigured" in the strike that killed his father, while U.S. and Israeli officials say they have indications he is alive but no proof he is the one giving orders in Tehran. Until Israel’s assassination of security chief Ali Larijani last week, U.S. and Israeli services viewed Larijani as Iran’s de facto leader, and now describe senior Iranian figures as operating like fugitives, shuttling between safe houses and avoiding digital communications. President Trump has been briefed repeatedly on the mystery, telling reporters that many Iranian leaders are "gone" and that Washington is "having a hard time" finding someone to talk to, underscoring how decapitation strikes may have disrupted but not clearly clarified Iran’s chain of command. The uncertainty over who is actually running Iran’s government complicates U.S. war planning, deterrence calculations and any attempt to negotiate de‑escalation, even as analysts caution there is no hard evidence yet that Mojtaba is incapacitated.