Global Oil and Gas Markets

At an April 1 news conference in Nicosia after a meeting of EU energy ministers, European Union Energy Commissioner Dan Jørgensen warned that Europe’s oil and gas prices will not return to pre–Iran war levels “in a foreseeable future,” even if a peace deal were reached immediately. He said there are no acute supply shortages yet, but diesel and jet fuel markets are tight and global gas constraints are driving higher electricity prices, with European gas up about 70% and oil up about 60%, adding roughly €14 billion to the bloc’s fossil‑fuel import bill. Jørgensen outlined a coming “toolbox” of EU measures, including ways to decouple gas prices from power prices, potential cuts to electricity taxes, and even a one‑time windfall tax on energy firms if profits spike, alongside encouragement for members to follow the IEA’s 10‑point demand‑reduction plan. He insisted the EU will maintain its ban on Russian gas, vowing not to “repeat the mistakes of the past” by again letting Moscow weaponize energy, and said the bloc is turning instead to suppliers such as the United States, Azerbaijan, Algeria and Canada. For U.S. readers, the message is that even if shooting stops in the Gulf, Europe expects a long, messy adjustment that keeps global fuel markets — and therefore U.S. prices and inflation pressures — elevated for some time.