Global Food and Fertilizer Supply

NPR reports that the U.S.–Israeli war with Iran has reduced shipping through the Strait of Hormuz — the route for roughly one‑third of global fertilizer shipments — to a trickle, driving fertilizer prices up about 30% in some regions and forcing plants in India, Bangladesh and Pakistan to halt production. UN Food and Agriculture Organization chief economist Máximo Torero warns that, unlike oil, there are no strategic international fertilizer reserves and no quick substitutes for lost Gulf exports, creating an immediate global shortfall that will hit South Asia, East Africa and parts of the Middle East hardest as planting seasons approach. Experts say higher oil prices compound the shock because farm machinery and food transport both depend on fuel, raising production and distribution costs and likely resulting in less food on global markets and higher prices. In countries where poor households spend about half their income on food, even a 5–10% jump in food prices could push hundreds of millions toward hunger and child malnutrition. For the U.S., the disruption threatens to feed back into already elevated food inflation and to destabilize key partner countries that rely heavily on imported fertilizer and grain.