Global Economy and Energy Shocks

China’s customs agency reports that exports surged nearly 22 percent in January–February 2026 from a year earlier, far above expectations, even as shipments to the United States fell 11 percent under Trump‑era tariffs. The growth is being driven by a roughly 73 percent jump in semiconductor exports by value, a 67 percent rise in auto exports, and a 27 percent increase in mechanical and electrical goods, much of it going to the European Union, Latin America and other Asian markets. Economists say a U.S. Supreme Court ruling that narrowed Trump’s sweeping tariffs has already trimmed some duties on Chinese goods, helping keep overall exports robust despite weaker direct trade with America. China’s imports also rose about 20 percent over the same period, but imports from the U.S. dropped nearly 27 percent, underscoring a widening bilateral imbalance even as China’s global surplus for the two months hit $213.6 billion. Analysts warn that the Iran war and effective blockade of the Strait of Hormuz could drive up oil prices, feeding global inflation and ultimately eroding foreign demand for Chinese exports, with knock‑on effects for U.S. energy costs and supply chains.