Economy and Oil Prices

Global oil prices have surged to their highest levels since last summer as markets increasingly price in the risk of U.S. military strikes on Iran and potential disruptions in the Persian Gulf. Brent crude climbed more than 4% Wednesday and is above $71 a barrel Thursday, while U.S. benchmark WTI is around $66, even though underlying demand remains soft and global supplies are ample. Analysts say traders are focused on both Iran’s roughly 1.5 million barrels per day of exports—mostly to China—and the much larger threat that fighting could choke traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, which carries about a quarter of the world’s seaborne oil. Scenario work from CSIS suggests a limited blockade of Iranian exports could add $10–$12 a barrel, while a serious Hormuz disruption could push prices above $90 and a wider attack on Gulf infrastructure could send crude toward $130 and U.S. gasoline well over $3 a gallon. The article underscores that today’s relatively low pump prices give the White House more room to maneuver militarily, but also notes Trump’s historic sensitivity to gasoline spikes, which could constrain the scale and duration of any conflict.