NOAA Winter Outlook Predicts Wetter South, Drier North Under Strong El Niño
NOAA on Thursday, October 15, 2026, released its winter outlook projecting a wetter-than-average December-February for the U.S. South and drier conditions in the North.[1]
NOAA projects the southern band, including the Southwest, Southeast and parts of the East Coast, will see above-average precipitation this winter.[1] Portions of the Great Lakes, the northern Mountain West, Hawaii and much of Alaska are forecast to be drier than average.[1] Warmer-than-average temperatures are expected across northern California, the Pacific Northwest, the Midwest, the Mississippi Valley and much of the eastern U.S.[1]
NOAA said forecasters expect a strong El Niño to significantly shape U.S. winter conditions.[1] Ken Graham, director of NOAA's National Weather Service, warned that heavy precipitation falling on dry soils can trigger flash floods and mudslides.[1] The outlook covers December 2026 through February 2027.
The agency expects drought to ease across broad parts of the Southwest, the southern Great Plains and sections of the East Coast, while drought could develop or worsen in Oregon, eastern Washington and parts of the northern Rockies.[1]
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📌 Key Facts
- On Thursday, October 15, 2026, NOAA released its U.S. winter outlook covering December 2026 through February 2027.
- NOAA projects wetter-than-average winter conditions for the southern band of the U.S., including the Southwest, Southeast, and parts of the East Coast.
- Portions of the Great Lakes, the northern Mountain West, Hawaii, and much of Alaska are forecast to see drier-than-average winters.
- The outlook forecasts warmer-than-average temperatures for northern California, the Pacific Northwest, the Midwest, the Mississippi Valley, much of the eastern U.S., and Alaska.
- Forecasters expect drought to ease across large parts of the Southwest, southern Great Plains, and sections of the East Coast, but to develop or worsen in Oregon, eastern Washington, and parts of the northern Rockies.
- Ken Graham, director of NOAA's National Weather Service, said on October 15 that a strong El Niño will significantly shape U.S. winter conditions and warned that heavy precipitation on dry soils can trigger flash floods and mudslides.
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