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Iran Drone Shootdowns Add To $38 Billion War Cost And Rising U.S. Aircraft Losses
Iranian forces shot down at least two U.S. MQ-1 drones in recent days, U.S. officials say.[1]
Those losses add to rising U.S. aircraft attrition as the Congressional Budget Office says the Iran war has cost roughly $38 billion through August 1, 2026.[2]
CBO's tally and Pentagon reporting show at least 24 MQ-9 Reaper drones lost, costing about $720 million, and one MQ-4C Triton destroyed, about $150 million.[1] The office also estimates $21.7 billion is needed to replace expended munitions — roughly $7.3 billion for land-attack cruise missiles and $13.1 billion for missile-defense interceptors.[3] Replacing other equipment lost is about $1.9 billion so far, and could rise to $3.3 billion if the Pentagon buys newer aircraft.[3]
On Tuesday, September 15, 2026, the Congressional Budget Office released a 19-page analysis that put the direct cost of the Iran war at roughly $38 billion through August 1, 2026.[2] The CBO projected ongoing costs of about $2 billion to $3 billion per month and warned rebuilding depleted munitions stockpiles could take five years or more.[3]
Early coverage emphasized headline cost estimates and administration statements downplaying shortages. Later reporting, driven by the CBO analysis and detailed CBS accounts of recent drone shootdowns, has focused on concrete inventory shortfalls and platform losses that amplify fiscal and strategic strains.[3]
CBO linked the conflict to higher energy costs that raised Q2 2026 inflation by about 2.3 percentage points and warned war-related energy shocks could add about 0.5 percentage points to interest rates in early 2027.[4] The White House requested an $87.6 billion June supplemental, about $42.3 billion of which CBO said was directly related to the Iran conflict, as Congress debates further funding.[5]
Show source details & analysis (9 sources)
📌 Key Facts
- On Tuesday, September 15, 2026, the Congressional Budget Office estimated the Iran war has cost roughly $38 billion through August 1, 2026.
- CBO projects ongoing costs of about $2 billion to $3 billion per month going forward, with July 2026 alone costing roughly $3 billion.
- The CBO breaks out an estimated $21.7 billion to replace munitions expended through August 1, 2026 — roughly $7.3 billion for land‑attack cruise missiles, $13.1 billion for missile‑defense interceptors and $1.2 billion for other munitions.
- CBO and a Pentagon inspector general warned of “strategic inventory shortfalls”; CBO says rebuilding depleted munitions stockpiles could take five years or more, and the Defense Department did not respond to CBO information requests.
- A CBO tally and Pentagon reporting show rising U.S. aircraft losses: at least 24 MQ-9 Reaper drones have been lost (about $720 million), one MQ-4C Triton was destroyed (about $150 million), and U.S. officials say Iranian forces recently downed at least two MQ‑1 unmanned aircraft.
- CBO estimates it will cost about $1.9 billion to replace equipment lost through August 1, 2026 — including a THAAD radar valued at roughly $500 million — and that total could rise to as much as $3.3 billion if the Pentagon replaces lost aircraft with newer models.
- The White House's June supplemental request sought $87.6 billion, about $42.3 billion of which CBO deems directly related to the Iran conflict, as congressional debate over additional funding continues.
- CBO attributes a 2.3 percentage-point rise in Q2 2026 inflation to higher energy costs tied in part to the Iran war (bringing inflation to about 5.3%) and forecasts that war-related energy shocks will contribute to a 0.5 percentage-point increase in interest rates in Q1 2027, raising federal interest payments.
📰 Source Timeline (9)
Follow how coverage of this story developed over time
September 25, 2026
September 17, 2026
10:32 PM
Iran recently downed at least 2 American drones, officials say
New information:
- CBS News aired a video segment at 5:32 p.m. Central on Thursday, Sept. 17, 2026, reporting that U.S. officials say Iran has recently downed at least two American drones.
- The segment, reported by CBS correspondent James Laporta, reiterates that the downings occurred 'in recent days' but does not specify exact locations or drone variants involved.
9:05 PM
Iran downed at least 2 unmanned American aircraft in recent days, U.S. officials say
New information:
- CBS reported on Thursday, Sept. 17, 2026, that Iranian forces downed at least two American MQ-1 unmanned aircraft 'in recent days,' according to U.S. officials.
- The new CBS video segment confirms that these recently downed aircraft were MQ-1 platforms, consistent with earlier text reporting but framed as at least two losses in the last several days.
- CBS identifies reporter James LaPorta as the correspondent relaying U.S. officials' confirmation of the latest shootdowns.
5:04 PM
Iran downed at least 2 American drones in recent days, U.S. officials say
New information:
- U.S. officials said on Thursday, September 17, 2026, that Iranian forces have brought down at least two American MQ-1 unmanned aircraft in recent days.
- It remains unclear where in the region the MQ-1s were downed or which MQ-1 variant was involved, but both Air Force Predators and Army Gray Eagles are capable of surveillance and Hellfire missile strikes.
- If the downed aircraft were older Air Force MQ-1 Predators, the loss of two would total roughly $8 million; Gray Eagles can cost tens of millions each depending on variant.
- A new Congressional Budget Office report released this week found that at least 24 MQ-9 Reaper drones have been lost since the U.S. began its war with Iran, representing about $720 million in losses.
- The same CBO report said an MQ-4C Triton was destroyed during the conflict, a loss valued at about $150 million.
- U.S. Central Command, which oversees operations against Iran, declined to comment on the latest MQ-1 shootdowns.
September 16, 2026
7:56 PM
Iran war has cost the U.S. more than $38 billion so far, budget office says
New information:
- The PBS article reiterates that the Congressional Budget Office pegs Department of Defense spending on the Iran war at more than $38 billion through August 1, 2026, and projects ongoing costs of up to $3 billion per month depending on conflict intensity.
- CBO newly estimates the war will keep U.S. inflation roughly 0.5 percentage points higher than previously forecast into the first quarter of 2027, largely due to reduced oil and gas shipments through the Strait of Hormuz and Red Sea disruptions.
- The CBO report was produced at the request of Rep. Brendan Boyle, the top Democrat on the House Budget Committee, and he issued a statement criticizing the war's fiscal impact and tying it to Republicans' domestic spending stance.
- The article notes that the White House's June supplemental request sought $87.6 billion, including about $42.3 billion CBO deems directly related to the Iran conflict, which CBO says is roughly 10% higher than its own cost estimate.
- PBS reports that the Defense Department declined to provide information to CBO for this analysis, which CBO describes as a break from past practice and a factor contributing to uncertainty in its estimates.
- A Pentagon inspector general report released Monday, September 14, 2026, is cited as finding that the war has produced "strategic inventory shortfalls" in U.S. military stockpiles.
September 15, 2026
6:42 PM
Iran War could cost $2 billion per month, Congressional Budget Office estimates
New information:
- On Tuesday, September 15, 2026, the Congressional Budget Office report estimated that if the Iran war continues at relatively low intensity, it will cost roughly $2–3 billion per month going forward, with July 2026 alone costing about $3 billion.
- The CBO now estimates the war from February 28 through August 1, 2026 has directly cost the U.S. about $38 billion, and breaks out an estimated $21.7 billion needed to replace munitions expended through August 1: $7.3 billion for land-attack cruise missiles, $13.1 billion for missile-defense interceptors, and $1.2 billion for other munitions.
- The report highlights that extensive use of interceptor missiles has created a "reduced inventory of interceptors for several years" and warns this shortfall would be especially problematic in a potential conflict with an adversary such as China that possesses large ballistic and cruise missile arsenals, including in a Taiwan scenario.
- CBO estimates it will cost about $1.9 billion to replace equipment lost in the conflict through August 1, including a THAAD air-defense radar worth roughly $500 million, and says the total could rise to as much as $3.3 billion if the Pentagon seeks supplemental funds to replace lost aircraft with newer models.
- The CBO notes that the Defense Department did not respond to its information requests, and its analysis relies on other government data; the article contrasts CBO and inspector general warnings about inventory shortfalls with recent public statements by President Trump and Admiral Brad Cooper downplaying any concerns about depleted munitions.
- The CBS report ties the CBO analysis to the administration's June 2026 $87.6 billion supplemental funding request, including $67 billion for Pentagon Iran-war needs, and to ongoing Republican efforts to authorize up to $73 billion via reconciliation that have stalled in the Senate.
6:07 PM
Independent Budget Office Estimates Iran War Has Cost $38 Billion
New information:
- On Tuesday, September 15, 2026, the Congressional Budget Office released a 19-page analysis estimating the Iran war cost the U.S. roughly $38 billion through August 1, 2026.
- CBO projected the war will continue to cost about $2 billion to $3 billion per month and said rebuilding depleted U.S. munitions stockpiles could take at least five years.
- The office noted its analysis was constrained because the Defense Department did not respond to CBO requests for information and therefore relied on government databases and public reports.
- CBO specified that its estimate covers replacing expended munitions and equipment lost in battle, increased flying hours, other operations, and increased fuel costs.
- The analysis did not include potential future costs to repair ships, aircraft, other equipment, or damaged military bases.
- CBO said its estimate was roughly in line with Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth’s late-July congressional testimony putting the war cost at $37.5 billion.
- The report was requested by several top Democrats, including Rep. Brendan Boyle, the ranking Democrat on the House Budget Committee, who publicly criticized the war’s fiscal impact in a statement responding to the analysis.
6:05 PM
Congressional budget scorers have a new estimate for the cost of the Iran war
New information:
- On Tuesday, September 15, 2026, the Congressional Budget Office released a separate report estimating the Iran war has cost $38 billion so far, compared with the inspector general’s $33.4 billion figure through June 30.
- CBO projects ongoing costs of $2–3 billion per month starting August 1, driven largely by munitions expenditures, with potential increases if hostilities intensify.
- The CBO analysis attributes a 2.3 percentage-point rise in Q2 2026 inflation, to 5.3%, to higher energy costs tied in part to the Iran war.
- The report forecasts that war-related energy shocks will contribute to a 0.5 percentage-point increase in interest rates in Q1 2027, raising federal interest payments and some mandatory spending.
- CBO emphasizes that rebuilding depleted munitions stockpiles could take five years or more, underscoring the long-term budgetary impact of current usage rates.
- The report notes Brent crude is currently above $103 per barrel but projects a decline to $84 by end-2026 and $76 by end-2027 in its baseline, while acknowledging refining-cost increases keeping fuel prices elevated.