Spotify Scrubs No. 1 Song Streams Amid Suspicious Kalshi Bets
On Wednesday, July 1, 2026, Spotify removed streams of Malcolm Todd's "Earrings" that it concluded were not from genuine listeners after the track briefly reached No. 1 on the platform's U.S. chart.[1]
Spotify said the song's U.S. streams jumped roughly 70% overnight on Sunday, June 28, 2026, pushing it to the top of the chart before the company scrubbed the suspected invalid plays.[1] The prediction-market firm Kalshi is investigating suspicious bets tied to the surge and is coordinating with Spotify, and Spotify said it routinely detects and removes manipulated streams and does not pay royalties on those plays.[1]
Kalshi expanded into music prediction markets in March and April 2026 by adding contracts on weekly artist streams and which songs would reach No. 1 on Spotify's U.S. and global charts. In January 2026, a Polymarket trader earned about $400,000 on bets tied to Nicolás Maduro's capture, a trade that prompted new scrutiny from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission and congressional questions about insider trading. By April 2026, combined monthly global trading volume on Kalshi and Polymarket rose to about $24 billion, up from under $5 billion in September 2025, and Kalshi crossed $100 billion in lifetime notional volume in the week before early July 2026.
Several traders and observers on social platforms flagged the anomalous "Earrings" spike almost immediately, with some asking Kalshi to pause payouts; the platform settled the bets hours before Spotify's later correction revealed the manipulation. Kalshi says it is investigating the suspicious wagers while working with Spotify to understand what happened.[1]
The incident has added to broader regulatory and public unease about whether prediction markets can be gamed by traders with advance access to streaming anomalies or other inside information. Observers note that rapid payouts based on initial chart moves can create incentives that amplify bad actors' rewards when detection systems only later revise counts.
The mainstream summary does not mention the significant growth in trading volume on prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket, which surged from under $5 billion in September 2025 to approximately $24 billion by April 2026. This rapid increase in trading activity raises questions about the potential for manipulation, particularly in light of the Spotify incident. Observers have noted that the reliance on initial streaming data for quick payouts can create incentives for bad actors to exploit the system, a concern that the summary downplays. Furthermore, while Spotify's detection systems are acknowledged, the summary fails to highlight how traders on social media were actively calling for a pause on payouts due to the suspicious surge, indicating a broader awareness of the issue among market participants that was not reflected in the mainstream narrative.
Additionally, the summary does not address the implications of the incident for regulatory oversight of prediction markets. Experts, including former SEC Commissioner Joseph Grundfest, have pointed out that the expansion of these markets has introduced risks related to insider trading and manipulation, which are becoming increasingly relevant as the volume of trades and the complexity of these markets grow. This context is crucial for understanding the broader regulatory and public unease surrounding the integrity of prediction markets, which the mainstream account only touches upon superficially.
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📊 Relevant Data
Combined monthly global trading volume on Kalshi and Polymarket rose from less than $5 billion in September 2025 to about $24 billion in April 2026.
Trading volume on prediction markets has soared in recent months — Pew Research Center
Kalshi crossed $100 billion in lifetime notional volume in the week prior to early July 2026 and recorded its first billion-dollar trading days that weekend.
Prediction Market Volume: Kalshi & Polymarket Aggregated Data — DeFi Rate
📌 Key Facts
- On Wednesday, July 1, 2026, Spotify removed streams of Malcolm Todd's 'Earrings' that it believes did not come from genuine listeners.
- The song's Spotify U.S. streams jumped roughly 70% overnight Sunday, June 28, 2026, briefly sending it to No. 1 on the platform's U.S. chart.
- Prediction market Kalshi is investigating suspicious bets linked to the song and is coordinating with Spotify.
- Spotify stated it routinely detects and mitigates stream manipulation and does not pay royalties on associated invalid streams.
- The episode adds to regulatory and public concerns about manipulation and insider use of prediction markets overseen by the CFTC.
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