Sales data undercuts Minneapolis' $81M ICE-surge loss claim
New state sales-tax data covering December 2025 through February 2026 undercut Minneapolis' estimate that Operation Metro Surge cost the city's restaurants, bars and cafes up to $81 million.[1]
The records show Minneapolis restaurant and bar taxable sales fell about $17 million in December 2025, $9 million in January and $5 million in February versus the prior year, a roughly $31 million decline.[1] Combined taxable sales across three key industries in Hennepin and Ramsey counties decreased by about $55 million year-over-year.[1] St. Paul restaurants and bars saw roughly a $1 million revenue increase while St. Paul retail taxable sales fell about $10 million over the same period.[1]
Operation Metro Surge began Dec. 1, 2025, and involved about 3,000 federal officers at its peak in Minnesota.[1] Minneapolis had released a report estimating losses for restaurants, bars and cafes could reach $81 million, but the state sales-tax totals suggest that figure was substantially overstated.[1]
Initial local coverage and the city's analysis highlighted widespread economic harm after the federal crackdown. The new month-by-month tax figures give a more specific, narrower view of economic effects, leaving policymakers and business owners to reassess claims about the crackdown's local cost.
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📌 Key Facts
- Operation Metro Surge, a federal immigration crackdown, began Dec. 1, 2025 and involved about 3,000 federal officers in Minnesota at its peak.
- State sales-tax data show Minneapolis restaurant and bar taxable sales fell $17 million in December 2025, $9 million in January, and $5 million in February versus the prior year, a total drop of about $31 million.
- The City of Minneapolis previously released a report estimating that losses for restaurants, bars and cafes could be up to $81 million, a figure the new data suggest was substantially overstated.
- St. Paul restaurants and bars saw a roughly $1 million increase in revenue over the same period, while St. Paul retail taxable sales fell about $10 million year-over-year.
- Combined taxable sales across three key industries in Hennepin and Ramsey counties decreased by about $55 million compared with the previous year.
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