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UAE Confirms It Will Leave OPEC Permanently On May 1
The United Arab Emirates announced on Tuesday, April 28, 2026 that it will permanently leave OPEC and the wider OPEC+ group effective May 1, 2026. The exit removes a major low-cost producer from the cartel and raises questions about OPEC's ability to manage global supply.
In a statement released by the WAM news agency, the UAE said the withdrawal reflects its long-term strategic and economic vision and accelerated investment in domestic energy production. The statement added the country will "bring additional production to market in a gradual and measured manner, aligned with demand and market conditions." The government also cited "geopolitical fluctuations" and the continued blockage of the Strait of Hormuz as short-term supply risks. Analysts expect higher medium-term output and more price volatility, though near-term flows may be limited while the strait is constrained, the New York Times reports. Before the war the UAE produced about 3 million barrels per day, and some reports put technical capacity nearer 4.8 million barrels per day.
The episode traces back to months of quota disputes and private UAE warnings that it might exit if production limits were not resolved, the New York Times reported. Analysts say other members had sometimes turned a blind eye to UAE overproduction and raised its quota to placate its desire to pump more, a pattern noted by Capital Economics and cited in coverage. Relations with Saudi Arabia had cooled amid rival backing in Yemen and growing economic competition, including a recent rupture in their coalition after a December strike over weapons shipments.
Early coverage framed the exit mainly as a bid for production flexibility and market share, an angle emphasized by Axios. Reporting in The New York Times and NPR has shifted the focus toward deepening Saudi-UAE tensions and regional politics as central motives. That narrative shift matters because geopolitical drivers suggest the withdrawal may reshape alliances as much as it reshapes markets.
Show source details & analysis (7 sources)
📌 Key Facts
- On Tuesday, April 28, 2026, the United Arab Emirates announced via the state-run WAM news agency that it will leave both OPEC and the wider OPEC+ group effective May 1, 2026 (state-run WAM news agency).
- The UAE said the decision followed an "extensive review" and reflects its "long-term strategic and economic vision," including a desire for more flexibility outside OPEC+ limits and "accelerated investment in domestic energy production," and it pledged to bring additional output to market "in a gradual and measured manner" aligned with demand (long-term strategic and economic vision).
- The official statement cited "geopolitical fluctuations" in short-term oil supplies and specifically referenced the Iran war and the continued blockage of the Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly 20% of global oil normally flows (Strait of Hormuz).
- Energy analysts warned the exit could weaken OPEC's ability to calibrate supply and stabilize prices: Rystad Energy’s Jorge Leon said the UAE's departure removes a market "shock absorber" and leaves Saudi Arabia "doing more of the heavy lifting on price stability" (Rystad Energy’s Jorge Leon).
- The New York Times reports UAE officials had privately warned other OPEC members for months that they might exit if quota disputes were not resolved, indicating prolonged internal tensions before the April 28 announcement (The New York Times).
- Observers note the scale of potential post‑OPEC increases: prewar UAE output was about 3 million barrels per day while reported and growing capacity is near 4.8 million barrels per day, underscoring how much more the UAE could pump outside OPEC limits (3 million barrels per day).
- Analysts and reporters tie the decision to wider Gulf politics, saying Saudi–UAE relations have "grown sour" and pointing to recent frictions in Yemen, including a December rupture when Saudi Arabia bombed what it described as a weapons shipment bound for UAE-backed separatists (Saudi–UAE tensions in Yemen).
📰 Source Timeline (7)
Follow how coverage of this story developed over time
April 28, 2026
3:10 PM
Strait of Hormuz in limbo as UAE says its leaving OPEC
New information:
- CBS News segment on Tuesday, April 28, 2026, reiterates that the United Arab Emirates’ withdrawal from OPEC will take effect May 1, 2026.
- The piece links the UAE’s decision directly with continuing uncertainty over the Strait of Hormuz, described as being in limbo amid Iran’s latest offer to reach a deal with the United States.
- Iran is said to have made a new offer toward a deal with the U.S., with the status of the Strait of Hormuz portrayed as a key unresolved element in those talks.
2:51 PM
United Arab Emirates will leave OPEC on May 1
New information:
- On Tuesday, April 28, 2026, the UAE announced via its state-run WAM news agency that it will leave both OPEC and the wider OPEC+ group effective May 1.
- The UAE statement describes the withdrawal as reflecting its 'long-term strategic and economic vision and evolving energy profile, including accelerated investment in domestic energy production.'
- The statement adds that, after exiting OPEC, the UAE will 'bring additional production to market in a gradual and measured manner, aligned with demand and market conditions.'
- The article emphasizes that the decision follows years of UAE frustration with OPEC production limits and increasingly frosty relations and economic competition with neighboring Saudi Arabia, especially under Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman.
- The piece notes recent Saudi–UAE tensions in Yemen, including a December rupture in their coalition when Saudi Arabia bombed what it described as a weapons shipment bound for UAE-backed Yemeni separatists.
2:17 PM
UAE leaves OPEC to pursue "accelerated" production
New information:
- Axios piece, published Tuesday, April 28, 2026, quotes an official UAE energy ministry statement saying the exit 'reflects the UAE's long-term strategic and economic vision and evolving energy profile, including accelerated investment in domestic energy production.'
- The article emphasizes that the UAE decision 'came as a surprise' to observers despite prior quota disputes.
- Rystad Energy is quoted warning that 'a structurally weaker OPEC, with less spare capacity concentrated within the group, will find it increasingly difficult to calibrate supply and stabilize prices.'
- Daniel Sternoff of Columbia's Center on Global Energy Policy calls the move a 'politically big deal' but notes limited near-term market impact while the Strait of Hormuz remains throttled and Gulf producers cannot quickly ramp output.
- Sternoff also frames the decision as a break with one of Saudi Arabia's core priorities and ties it to UAE perceptions that the U.S., Israel, France and others have been better wartime allies than some Gulf neighbors.
- Richard Goldberg of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies is quoted arguing the withdrawal could be positive for the U.S. by enabling closer energy alignment with Washington.
- The piece reiterates that prewar UAE output was about 3 million barrels per day versus a reported and growing capacity near 4.8 million barrels per day, underscoring the scale of potential post-OPEC production increases.
- Analyst Jorge Leon of Rystad is quoted saying that with oil demand nearing a peak, low-cost producers increasingly see OPEC quotas as leaving 'money on the table.'
2:09 PM
The United Arab Emirates is quitting OPEC oil cartel after nearly 60 years
New information:
- NPR confirms via UAE state-owned media that the country will leave OPEC on May 1, 2026, after nearly 60 years of membership, reiterating the date and formal nature of the decision.
- The UAE’s statement frames the exit as reflecting its "long-term strategic and economic vision" and "accelerated investment in domestic energy production," and as reinforcing a "responsible, reliable, and forward-looking" role in global energy markets.
- NPR adds geopolitical context that political relations between Saudi Arabia and the UAE have "grown sour," noting they back opposing forces in Yemen and are competing economically.
- The article cites former UAE official Tareq Alotaiba arguing the Iran war has strengthened UAE ties with the U.S., Europe and Israel while some Arab neighbors have "hedged" and "equivocated" as states were under attack.
- Rystad Energy’s Jorge Leon is quoted saying UAE was one of OPEC’s key members willing to hold back barrels and that its exit leaves Saudi Arabia "doing more of the heavy lifting on price stability" and removes one of the market’s "shock absorbers."
- NPR notes that in the short term UAE exports are constrained by reduced traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, but that in the longer term the exit will weaken OPEC’s ability to control the oil market.
2:08 PM
United Arab Emirates Says It Will Leave OPEC in Blow to Oil Cartel
New information:
- The New York Times reports the UAE framed its decision as a strategic move to expand production beyond OPEC limits and capture market share while prices are high.
- The article details that UAE officials had privately warned other members for months they might exit if quota disputes were not resolved, indicating prolonged internal tensions before the April 28, 2026 announcement.
- The piece cites analysts saying the move could prompt other dissatisfied producers to question their own commitments, raising the risk of a broader unraveling of the OPEC+ supply‑management system.
- The Times notes immediate market reaction, with traders and analysts anticipating higher medium‑term output from the UAE and increased volatility as markets test how OPEC responds to the defection.
1:57 PM
United Arab Emirates says it will permanently leave OPEC on May 1
New information:
- On Tuesday, April 28, 2026, the United Arab Emirates said it is leaving OPEC after more than 50 years of membership, with its exit to take effect May 1.
- The UAE described the move as following an "extensive review" of its production policy and future capacity and emphasized a desire for more flexibility outside OPEC+ obligations.
- The official statement cited "geopolitical fluctuations" in short-term oil supplies, specifically referencing the Iran war and the continued blockage of the Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly 20% of global oil normally flows.
- Analysts at Capital Economics noted that other OPEC members had previously turned a blind eye to UAE overproduction and raised its quota levels to placate its desire to pump more oil.